Dice Analogy to ELO Hell

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DuffTime

Senior Member

06-07-2011

I suppose the issue that is being represented is that -if- you flip a low number, you're going to drop to a place where you're -more likely- to flip a low number again.

This is what people are referring to as "Elo hell" where they lost a few games an find themselves in a place where the games are too difficult for them to carry their way out of.

The mistake people make is giving up here.

There are player who win and win and win. Everyone starts in the same place, and luck does nothave everything to do with this.

Even in high Elo there are "noobs trolls feeders and leavers", that doesn't ever go away. And the high Elo players don't ever stop raging about "noobs trolls feeders and leavers".

The problem with using probability is a game like this is that individual player skill can affect the dice roll, and in ways that are outside of what a dice roll could ever predict.

A 2200k Elo player in the 1000 range would crush his way through his games and find himself high Elo in no time. Because of his timing, his play, his clever wards, his lane dominance, his farm, etc.

"Elo Hell" is really just code word for, the players here aren't good, or they leave, or whatever, and I can't force a win under those circumstances"

I.E; good enough to pull your own weight vrs 5 bad players, but not able to force a win when you have to pull everyone else's weight.

You got the bad dice roll, and the outcome rang true.

(Trolls are different, when a guy runs down mid and feeds kills, how can you win. Becomes very difficult.)


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CyraLoL

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Senior Member

06-07-2011

Ugh, this should be funny but for some reason is painful.

You guys need to realize that the wikipedia article linked isn't even related for ****s sake rofl - quoting it and saying "amen" just makes you a statistic for those studies that show people are intuitively terrible at probability.

Also, do you have any idea what .5^49 is? Were you correct in saying that was the answer, you'd have simply proved my point. While its tempting to say oh yes, yes, look at this man, the difference is .5^49 using someone else's incorrect math wouldn't really help me in the long run.

Since you were almost on the right track for P(d) however, I should point out that since my example was an example of outcome, we are talking about E(o). Further, I think it sort of rests my case that talking about probability on game forums is pointless when two people have given laughably wrong numerical values and one person has linked an unrelated wikipedia article.

If any of you had bothered to read the words, you'd realize that as I've already noted, that is neither my primary point nor my strongest point. That what I was talking about happens to be true is almost incidental.

Argh. And here I promised to stop feeding the trolls. I failed at that.


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CyraLoL

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Senior Member

06-07-2011

@DuffTime. I'd say that unless your a Euro player (ie I can't see your ranked games) or thats a smurf, you haven't spent a lot of time what people would call ELO Hell. I don't mean this as a dig or an invalidation of your argument, but I would kindly suggest that it can be more frustrating that you probably assume.

If your a moderately good player and you win your first few games, this is not a phenomena your going to see unless you hit a coverse streak of really ****ty games. Which gets back to my main point - a lot of what your ELO is based on - even in the long term - is luck. Period.

Personally I wouldn't even claim to be an expert on it, though I think I've seen a pretty good view having about 400 ranked games played between 900(lowest ELO) and 1430(highest ELO). I would personally say that I firmly believe that ELO Hell exists. I am not a victim of ELO Hell - I am a statistic.

That said, ELO Hell is relatively easy to escape - queue with a 1500+ person. If your good enough to play in 1300-1400 bracket, you'll be fine, as you'll no longer be playing with the deziens of ELO Hell.


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Jakob

Senior Member

06-07-2011

the elo model around 1000-1400 elo does not take into account the vast amount of people who are starting ranked at any given point in time. their true ratings are often widely disparate from their actual ratings as they are new.

thus, the existence of a very limited concept of elo hell around 100-1400 elo exists where luck in early games can match you with players you should not be matched with.

you can do all the maths you like on other issues


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feed lag repeat

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Senior Member

06-08-2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by CyraLoL View Post
Ugh, this should be funny but for some reason is painful.

You guys need to realize that the wikipedia article linked isn't even related for ****s sake rofl - quoting it and saying "amen" just makes you a statistic for those studies that show people are intuitively terrible at probability.

Also, do you have any idea what .5^49 is? Were you correct in saying that was the answer, you'd have simply proved my point. While its tempting to say oh yes, yes, look at this man, the difference is .5^49 using someone else's incorrect math wouldn't really help me in the long run.

Since you were almost on the right track for P(d) however, I should point out that since my example was an example of outcome, we are talking about E(o). Further, I think it sort of rests my case that talking about probability on game forums is pointless when two people have given laughably wrong numerical values and one person has linked an unrelated wikipedia article.

If any of you had bothered to read the words, you'd realize that as I've already noted, that is neither my primary point nor my strongest point. That what I was talking about happens to be true is almost incidental.

Argh. And here I promised to stop feeding the trolls. I failed at that.
probability of getting 50 heads = 100C50 x 0.5^100
probability of getting 100 heads = 100C100 x 0.5^100

btw, you cant compared LoL games to dice rolls

games are not independent events like dice rolls, as elo goes up, games become steadily harder


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DuffTime

Senior Member

06-08-2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by feed lag repeat View Post
probability of getting 50 heads = 100C50 x 0.5^100
probability of getting 100 heads = 100C100 x 0.5^100

btw, you cant compared LoL games to dice rolls

games are not independent events like dice rolls, as elo goes up, games become steadily harder
They certainly become more competitive.

Is it harder to carry trolls and noobs vrs trolls and noobs or is it harder to play against a bunch of good players when you've also got a bunch of good ones on your team? 8D


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DuffTime

Senior Member

06-08-2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by CyraLoL View Post
@DuffTime. I'd say that unless your a Euro player (ie I can't see your ranked games) or thats a smurf, you haven't spent a lot of time what people would call ELO Hell. I don't mean this as a dig or an invalidation of your argument, but I would kindly suggest that it can be more frustrating that you probably assume.

If your a moderately good player and you win your first few games, this is not a phenomena your going to see unless you hit a coverse streak of really ****ty games. Which gets back to my main point - a lot of what your ELO is based on - even in the long term - is luck. Period.

Personally I wouldn't even claim to be an expert on it, though I think I've seen a pretty good view having about 400 ranked games played between 900(lowest ELO) and 1430(highest ELO). I would personally say that I firmly believe that ELO Hell exists. I am not a victim of ELO Hell - I am a statistic.

That said, ELO Hell is relatively easy to escape - queue with a 1500+ person. If your good enough to play in 1300-1400 bracket, you'll be fine, as you'll no longer be playing with the deziens of ELO Hell.
I've had plenty of trolls and feeders on my teams in my experience with this game, and I've won or lost games with them.

My point is there are players who are good enough, that it just doesn't matter, and therefore individual player skill > Elo hell, which means it's existence is only "And annoying place" and not this inescapable realm that the forum trolls refer to it as.

I know you don't think it's that, but lots of these guys -do- think they will never escape and it's out of their control.

The only reason I post on these topics is because the proof is in the pudding. A good player will always rise and win games. Even with the trolls noobs and feeders. And even with leavers, etc. They won't win all their games, but they will win enough to rise.

That's just undeniable, there are too many examples. If a player legitimately get 8 games in a row with a feeder in bot and a leave in mid, and he loses somehow 100-200 ELO let's say just for the sake of making a point, and finds himself amongst terrible players who are harder to carry, he will rise out of there in time, and find his way back up where he belongs.

I can say this with certainty, because there are -so- many players who do it, and I know a lot of players personally who claim they were -1000, and who are now even up to the 1200 - 1500+ range.

It's not a fun place to be at that ELO, but it's not inescapable, like you mentioned, and escape can be done by yourself. Duo queue isn't necessary.


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feed lag repeat

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Senior Member

06-08-2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuffTime View Post
They certainly become more competitive.

Is it harder to carry trolls and noobs vrs trolls and noobs or is it harder to play against a bunch of good players when you've also got a bunch of good ones on your team? 8D
its easier to carry noobs/trolls


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DuffTime

Senior Member

06-09-2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by feed lag repeat View Post
its easier to carry noobs/trolls
I actually agree with you, which is why I laugh when people talk about ELO hell =P


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Goatbolt

Member

06-09-2011

All this stuff about numbers and dice rolls doesnt mean ****. If you wanna win, pick good champions to counter theirs.