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Season 4 World Championship Predictions!

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Katow Jo

Junior Member

07-28-2014

Hey everyone,

With the Season 4 World Championship fast approaching, I wanted to share with you who I think the 16 qualifying teams are going to be and I'd love to hear your guys' opinions on the matter as well! So for those of you who haven't heard the news yet, this year's Worlds' format has been changed from the past season. In my opinion, this is the best format they've introduced so far; no BYE's, 4 groups of 4, and a fair number of representatives from every region as follows:

3 from North American LCS (Regionals held at PAX 2014)
3 from European LCS (Regionals held at Gamescom 2014)
3 from Chinese LPL (Regional Playoffs to be held by the LPL in August)
3 from Korean OGN Champions (2 Teams as the top of Circuit Point standings + 1 Regional team)
2 from South East Asian GPL (Regionals to be held in August - 1 from Taiwan + 1 from SEA)
2 international Wild Cards (1 from Brazil/Latin America + 1 from CIS/Oceania/Turkey)

Which brings us to a grand total of 16 teams, the most Riot's World Championship has ever held. What I also like about the new format is the absence of BYE's from all the previous Championships; this means that the 8 teams moving on to the playoffs will be the 2 top teams from every group, ensuring that cases such as the Gamania Bears from last year don't get a quarter final spot without going through groups first. Finally, here are my predictions for the 16 qualifying teams:

From North American LCS: Cloud 9, Team SoloMid, Counter Logic Gaming

Usually, the NA LCS Standings clearly tell which teams are at the top, but this Summer Split, the top 6 seem to be at each other's throat for the top spot, with only 1 or two wins separating them from each other. I think this is a great sign that the NA scene has improved as a whole and will bring much more to the table at Worlds. I choose Cloud 9 because of the dominance they've shown through the last 3 splits and I think it'd be a very big mistake to count them out of this one as well. Team SoloMid has had huge roster changes, but I think they've all been for the best, they're constantly neck to neck with C9 and LMQ for the top of the table and the addition of Lustboy to the lineup has closed a weak link in the chain found in Gleeb in my opinion. Not to mention, TSM has been to every World Championship so far, why wouldn't they get to go again this year? Finally, CLG's roster, just like TSM's, has seen massive changes, with the Rush Hour botlane feared across the NA scene and finally some good shot calling with Dexter in the Jungle. CLG has always felt short near the at of the season, but I believe they'll be able to pick it up right when they need to.

I didn't pick LMQ because I don't think they'll have the playoff experience to fend off the top NA teams, but I could very well be wrong, they do hold the #1 spot for a reason after all. I would very well have chosen Dignitas 3 weeks ago, but where they currently stand,I don't think they'll have enough to make to the top 3. I'm hoping that NA will be able to reach at least the Semi-Finals this year through Cloud 9, or maybe even TSM if they can pick it up in time for Worlds.

From European LCS: Alliance, Fnatic, Millenium

The EU "Super Team" of Alliance seems to finally have come together, and they are currently on the top of EU LCS Standings. They've shown strong dominance throughout the entire split and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't grab a ticket to Worlds as one of the 3 EU teams. Fnatic, good old Fnatic, no matter how rough they start, they've always ended up at the top of the league of the end of the split. Xpeke and friends might find it hard to defend their title this summer, but in either case, they are surely bound to go to Worlds along with Alliance. The 3rd EU seed is a rather interesting spot, Millinium currently holds 3rd place, and they're gameplay has been very solid as of recently. Not long ago I would've chosen SK Gaming, but just like Dignitas in NA, they've fallen short for the past 2-3 weeks and lost their grip on the front pack. However, I wouldnt be surprised if them or Roccat somehow manage to snatch that 3rd spot in the playoffs, as both teams are very well capable of performing when the time comes. And then there's the Supa Hot Crew, I never would have thought they'd make it this far, and I'm honestly very impressed with their run, they too, could very well grab that 3rd spot and be the "Lemondogs" of this year.

I never thought I'd say it, but Gambit Gaming almost has no chances whatsoever to make it to Worlds this year. After Alex Ich's departure, the roster has been shaky, unstable, and has found an all time low amount of wins. The M5 days are far, far away, and GMB will have to find a solution if they wanna find their form again for the future. The same could be said for the Wolves; they've shown a lot of potential when they came in spring, but I bad playoff run almost sent them to relegation. They lost a couple of great players after that (Especially Amazing who went to TSM) and have yet to recover their form.

EU has always done well at Worlds, always managing to at least reach the top 4 (CLG.EU and M5 in Season 2 and Fnatic in Season 3) and Alliance and Fnatic have never looked better. Thought they fell short all All-Stars, I expect nothing less than a top 4 finish from their part again, epecially with strong teams like Alliance.


From Chinese LPL: OMG, Edward Gaming, Team WE

The Chinese scene has always been obscure, producing teams like Royal Club who reached the finals last year out of nowhere, but this time around there are 3 clar front runners for the race to Worlds under the Chinese banner. OMG is an undisputed favourite, having represented China very well at many events in the past and grabbing multiple titles for themselves. Edward Gaming (EDG) is the real first rival that OMG faces in the LPL, they've managed to take a few games from them and often contest the top of the table with OMG. Not to mention a reason IEM win, EDG seems to be just as if not stronger than OMG at the moment, and it'll be very interesting to see them at Worlds on the international stage for the first time.

The third spot will be mainly contested between Team WE and Royal Club in my opinion, revamped with Korean super star InSec, Royal has had its up and downs through LPL Summer, while Team WE has had a more consistent performance, which is why I chose them over Royal Club, but either teams could very snatch that 3rd spot and have a play on the world's biggest LoL stage. China is right behind Korea in the world standings, but they've shown a few weaknesses at international events recently. I expect them to make it to the Semi-Finals again, if not the Grand Finals like last year.

From Korean OGN Champions: Samsung White, Samsung Blue, SK Telecom T1 K

The Korean OGN Champions circuit is probably the most competitive and unpredictable one, which makes it one of my favourite regions to watch. Unlike the NA and EU LCS, Korean spots to Worlds are awarded to the top teams of the Circuit point system, who grants points based on where a team places at OGN and NLB tournaments. The top 2 teams earn a free spot while the 3rd spot is contested through the Korean Regionals every year. As of now, the two Samsung teams (White and Blue) of the monopoly of circuit points of stand atop of the table, having had strong finishes in all 3 OGN tournaments this season (White reaching Winter 2013-14 Finals, Blue winning Spring 2014, and both teams once again making it to the Top 4 for Summer). Samsung Blue has statistically already locked in their place to Worlds with their garanteed minimum of 550 points, and White is right behind them. The Samsung teams will look the take the ultimate prize in front of their home fans this year. The 3rd Spot is so far looking to be contested between 4 teams: SK Telecom T1K, Najin White Shield, CJ Blaze, and either SKT T1S or KT Arrows. Allthough T1K has looked invincible on the international stage, they've been anything but dominant in Korea. That being said, their competition has had struggles of its own in OGN; NJWS barely made it out of groups in Summer after a top 2 finish in Spring, CJ Blaze went out in the groups for the first time in Summer, and T1S or KTA have a minimal amount of high-pressure games. I'll give it to the S3 World champions to take it, but statistically, no champion has ever made it back to Worlds the year after they've won (that'd be Fnatic in S1 and TPA in S2) and that 3rd spot could go to any one of those 4 teams.

Korea will be playing in front of their die hard fans this Championship, and there's no reason to believe they won't take the crown again. Both Samsungs are seens as the world's strongest teams right now and I definitely expect an all Korean Finals if the brackets allows it, if not, definitely at least a top 2 finish from the strongest teams in the world.

From the South East Asian GPL: Taipei Assassins and Saigon Jokers/AHQ E-sports Club

TPA has been champions of the GPL in Winter and in Spring, and are looking to take the title again in Summer. They're almost a shoe-in for of the 2 spots for Worlds this year. The only reason I'm unsure about the 2ns spot is because I don't know if Riot will allow 2 teams from Taiwan, as they only allowed 1 from Taiwan and 1 from SEA so far. If they allow 2 teams from Taiwan, I expect AHQ to follow TPA to worlds, if not, it'll be one of the Vietnamese teams as they're the only ones who can contend with the Taiwainese powerhouses.

SEA has always been a strange region when it comes to competitive league of legends. They've recently shown great weaknesses on the world stage, with TPA going winless at All-Stars, but no one can ever count them out as they've managed to win the Summoner's Cup in Season 2. It appears as if team that come out of this regions are either at the bottom of international competition, or if not, at the very top. I remember being super surprised when TPA beat Azubu Frost in S2, and since then, I've never counted the South East Asian completely off.

From the International Wild Card Tournament: Kabum E-Sports, Dark Passage

Riot boosted the international wildcard spots from 1 to 2 this year, and although last year's GamingGear.EU couldn't really accomplish much at Worlds, it's always nice to see how teams from minor regions are doing on the international stage. While I find these teams to have very little chances of making it past groups, I very much appreciate their presence and I'm sure they can grab a whole lot of experience from this tournament. Kabum E-sports from Brazil beat Pain gaming in the CBLOL regionals and I expect them to take one of the 2 spots along with Dark Passage, a turkish team that's always done well in the Turkish scene, now we just have to see if they can beat the best of Oceania and CIS.

TL:DR - Here are the 16 qualifying teams in my opinion

NA: C9, TSM, CLG
EU: ALL, FNC, MIL
CN: OMG, EDG, WE
KR: SSW, SSB, SKT1K
SEA: TPA, AHQ/SAJ
WILD CARD: KABUM, DARK PASSAGE.

What do you think?


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Tbird

Senior Member

07-28-2014

Where do you get your information on the OGN Korean circuit? I can find everything for the current split on lolesports but I can't seem to find the point totals you are talking about. Also do they have any more events after this current playoffs that is going on right now?


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Katow Jo

Junior Member

07-28-2014

Here's an updated table of the Korean OGN Circuit, as seen on lol.gamepedia!

http://lol.gamepedia.com/Season_4/Circuit_Points_Korea (http://lol.gamepedia.com/Season_4/Circuit_Points_Korea)

As for how it works in OGN, they don't have an LCS like we do here, instead, they have 3 tournaments every season (Winter, Spring, Summer) with 16 teams and those teams gain circuit points based on where they place in the OGN Champions tournament. Winning the tournament itself gives you a huge amount of points (400 pts) and at the end of the 3 tournaments, the top 2 Circuit point holders get a spot to Worlds while the 3rd seed is played for in a 4-team gauntlet style playoffs (SK Telecom T1K went to Worlds last year through these playoffs, and we all know how they fared at S3 Worlds :P )


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Masterm111

Senior Member

07-29-2014

For NA, I think it's going to be : TSM, Curse, and LMQ.


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Tbird

Senior Member

07-29-2014

So then it appears that if SKT T1K is able to get the full 75 points from the NLB and Samsung White finishes 3rd in the current tourney, they will end up tied. Any idea on what would determine the tie breaker for the number 2 spot between those two? Sorry to ask so many questions I just am never able to find good info on the Korean circuit.


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hypermonkieboi

Senior Member

07-29-2014

LMQ stomps the NA scene. No way they can lose playoffs.


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Sforces

Senior Member

07-29-2014

Quote:
hypermonkieboi:
LMQ stomps the NA scene. No way they can lose playoffs.


they've lost to c9 3/4 times. yea there is no waaaaay they could lose 4/5.

2nd skt is gonna win it all. that's the only team im rooting for, other than c9 of course.


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Katow Jo

Junior Member

07-31-2014

Quote:
Sforces:
they've lost to c9 3/4 times. yea there is no waaaaay they could lose 4/5.

2nd skt is gonna win it all. that's the only team im rooting for, other than c9 of course.


The main reason why I wouldn't choose LMQ is because of their huge internal troubles with ownership and everything (if you guys haven't been following them). Their entire team is pretty much in jeopardy of not even being able to compete in future LCS's. And as for SKT T1K, if you look at the past 5 months, yes they sweeped All-stars easily (which is really scary on its own), but they've been having huge struggles in Korea, only managing top 8 at best, mopped around by the Samsung teams and the KT Arrows from time to time.


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Kawaii Asuna

Recruiter

07-31-2014

coL for worlds.


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K RIDE5

Senior Member

07-31-2014

NA: TSM, C9, CLG Dark Horse: CRS
TSM has looked amazing the past 2 weeks as has C9 and CLG is boot camping in Korea and scrimming Korean Teams in preparation for the NA Regionals... If they can't get at least 3rd in NA after that they may aswell be relegated. CRS has just been... surprising this Split... they always seem to show up when their backs are against the wall and it would be awesome to see Xpecial at another World Championship.

EU: ALL, FNC, SK Dark Horse: SHC
ALL and FNC have both looked great heading into their Regionals. SK is a veteran team and looked good this week in their Super week going 3-1 so I give them the inside track on SHC making it to Worlds. SHC is just a really young team and I wanna see how their talent loaded roster does on the World stage.

CN: OMG, EDG, WE Dark Horse: SHRC
OMG and EDG are the clear cut favorites to represent China at Worlds this year, as they should be, they've both dominated the Chinese scene all season and that doesn't appear to be stopping anytime soon. WE is my next team, they seem to be the most consistent team in China that isn't named OMG or EDG so there you go... SHRC (Star Horn Royal Club for those of you that don't know) are basically the most they are another team I would like to see at Worlds just because they're different than any other team in China and they always pull out at least 1 victory no matter who they face and have only been 2-0'd by OMG which you can't really give them too much **** for. Plus they have Insec and... lets be honest hear... we all wanna see him at a World championship especially if he can get Lee Sin.

KR: SSB, SSW, KTA Dark Horse: SKT T1 K
SSB is guaranteed a spot at Worlds so there's no point in saying why I chose them. SSW will probably beat their sister team tomorrow morning and head to the finals of Champions Summer against KTA a trip to the finals would also give them enough Circuit Points to guarantee themselves a seed at Worlds aswell the only way they would have to fight for their spot is if a couple things go horribly wrong for them but everything lining up that way seems pretty unlikely to happen... My final team to represent Korea may surprise many people, that team being KTA (KT Rolster Arrows) they are another team that I would just love to see play more this season, they're a very aggressive and young team that is just fun to see play no matter what they do and they've looked amazing this Summer, so amazing that I think they'll beat any and every team that they run into at the Regional Qualifier. SKT T1 K is probably the most well known Korean team on the International stage and for good reason, they won the S3 World Championship and they went undefeated at All Stars, because of this they have a very large fanbase outside of Korea and it would be awesome to see the World Champs return and defend what is rightfully theirs. (tbh I think Rito should make it so that the Champs get an autolock to the next World Championships, probably will never happen but just saying that would be awesome)

SEA: TPA, AHQ
TPA has dominated the SEA Region all season and will probably win the Summer Championship automatically qualifying their spot for Worlds and theirs no reason to believe that they won't win the Summer. AHQ has been a top team in SEA this season and looks to be the 2nd best team in SEA for the 2nd "season" in a row. I didn't pick a Dark Horse for this region because none of the other teams really seem to have a shot at beating the 2 that I picked.

Wild Cards: The teams that will place 15th and 16th at Worlds.
I don't have any clue on any of the teams going to the Wild Card events so I have no clue on who will go, what I do know is that the Wild Cards will again be the bottom feeders of the World Championship and relieve a lot of stress on the teams that are in the same group as they are.

P.S. Praying that the S5 World Championships feature 20 teams, 4 groups of 5 so that we can see even more top teams duking it out in an even more demanding group stage. *fingers crossed*


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