Understanding the new ranking system

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Selthus

Member

02-10-2013

Ok so there is a lot of hate for the new ranking system that I think is based on a lack of understanding from the community. I'll try my best to explain the how I view the ranking system with an outsiders perspective. If anyone has anything to add to it please feel free!

Ok. The nature of your ELO or MMR is that it will fluctuate constantly throughout small snapshots of gameplay with every hot or cold streak you run into. The new system anchors your ranking to something more tangible (Bronze, Silver, Gold, etc.). In this way the new ranking system takes into account mean reversion or the idea that in the long run players should return to their average MMR. If the player does not return to their average MMR that is when the system decides that a promotion or demotion is required to reflect what you've proven is your new average MMR.

It will often act as a lagging indicator of your skill if you are on the verge of being promoted or demoted which can lead to a lot of frustration on the players part. E.G. When a player gets paired against gold players while they are still ranked silver. You should NOT be upset by this as the system is simply trying to get an idea of where you belong!

Every player has an average MMR with a variance. As time goes on this variance will get smaller and smaller if you play predictably by winning matches you are projected to win or losing matches you are projected to lose. This is why things like win/loss ratios are not necessarily indicative of a players skill. Remember the goal of the ELO system is to provide you with fairly even games where there is as close to a 50/50 chance to win or lose as possible.

The system also gives a better sense of progression than just simply showing your elo. Because your rank is a lagging indicator of your true MMR the system will not just promote you because you had an extremely lucky series of games. It gathers more substantial evidence that you truly deserve a promotion or demotion in ranking.

It is extremely important to remember that your MMR did not get removed it is simply hidden!

There is so much more complex information online about how TrueSkill, MMR, and ELO systems work. I hope this info helps and please feel free to pick apart what I've written here if it is not accurate, or contribute if you find it lacking!


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Selthus

Member

02-10-2013

Questions:

Q1
What do you mean by projected to win/lose?

A1
What I mean by this is that it is really hard to pair completely equivalent teams in every ranked game. Sometimes the ELO of the opposing team is statistically significantly higher/lower than your team. When this happens you will gain higher LP for winning or lower LP for losing or Lower LP for winning and lower LP for losing. Essentially if the game expects you to win a game you will not be rewarded as much as a perfectly even game or a game where you are expected to lose.

Q2
What do you mean by variance?

A2
While you are pegged to a certain MMR it does not mean every time you face a team with a higher/lower MMR that you are destined to lose/win. Typically players with a higher variance are less predictable and will have higher shifts in their average MMR. In the long run this should even out to your average MMR.

If you do not return to average this means the system has misjudged you and will either promote you or demote you accordingly until you started performing predictably. At this time your variance should shrink as you start performing predictably by winning matches you should win and losing matches you should lose.

Q3
Why does it seem like every time I'm on a winning streak it is followed by a similarly long losing streak?

A3
This ties into the idea of your variance. Essentially the winning streak is a statistical anomaly that theoretically should not happen in a perfect system where every game is 50/50. Imaging flipping a coin 5 times and it lands heads all 5 times. Now flip it 100 more times. In the end you should be flipping roughly around 50%. The win streak could have been a little lucky that you just happened to win perfectly even games 5 times in a row. This will inflate your MMR and pair you against slightly harder opponents that you may not be ready for. After your MMR finally settles to its true value you will once again face opponents who are roughly equivalent in skill.

If however you go on a win streak and keep winning against increasingly more difficult opponents, your bell curve will shift to a new average MMR and likely lead to a promotion. Essentially the system "tests" you after a series of wins to see if you are just outperforming your opponents as a fluke or if you are truly more skilled than the system previously thought.

Q4
Why does matchmaking try so hard to keep my W/L at 50%?

A4
Ok. Matchmaking does not do this to punish you! It is simply trying to accurately gauge your skill to make perfectly competitive games. If you find yourself playing 10 games, losing 5 and winning 5 the system is working perfectly as intended. It means you are playing perfectly competitive games overall where your chances of winning and losing are 50-50. It means the system has accurately judged your skill and is putting you in games that have a relatively even outcome.

In the case of win/loss streaks see Q3/A3.

Q5
Why do I get way less points from winning a game than losing a game?

A5
This is a complicated question to answer. If you simply look at 2 games where one was a win and the other a loss and compare the numbers it is not very telling of what is actually happening. For example say that I won a game and was awarded 20 league points while the next game I lost and was penalized 30 league points. Well it could turn out that the first game you won was an even game where you would have either won 20 league points or lost 20 league points. The next game could have been a game where your team was heavily favored to win where if you won you would have only received 10 points while losing would penalize you 30.

If it is consistently happening where all your wins net less points than losses penalize it means that the system thinks you are ranked at a higher MMR than you should be and is working to peg you to a new average MMR. For example your MMR is at 1500 currently but you lose games you theoretically should win more often than not so the system is constantly pairing you against opponents who have a lower MMR than you. If you continue to lose it will chip away at your League points to keep you further from your next promotion that the system deems you are not ready for. It will do this until your MMR drops to a point where you are now considered to be competing against equivalent opponents at which point your league points will equalize for winning and losing.

If you were to consistently win against these opponents you would start playing against equally skilled opponents again causing you to compete in games where the league points would be more evenly split. Essentially what is happening is the system is actively trying to anchor you to the league/division you currently belong to until you prove by winning that you are deserving of a promotion.

In cases where you earning abnormally low MMR points (+1, +0, +2) it means you are anchored currently to your league. It happens a lot when people are on the verge of being promoted in a league but there MMR isn't high enough to warrant such a promotion. If you keep winning your MMR will slowly creep up until you are at a point in which the system will indeed recognize that you are performing at a greater skill than your league warrants. At which time you will be promoted.

We can see this illustrated in the extreme example of someone whose MMR is so low they win 0 league points for a win. The new system has anchored that person into their low bracket until their MMR catches up to where they should be. At which point they will start equalizing their win/loss League points.


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Selthus

Member

02-10-2013

I'll try to update this thread with questions I see in other threads. Hoping to see some input from everyone in an attempt to better understand the LoL ranking system!


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Selthus

Member

02-10-2013

I respect down voting, but please try to add something constructive so this thread offers a better understanding of the current system. Hopefully with a better understanding we will see less players blame the system for their current league!


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Oconnomo

This user has referred a friend to League of Legends, click for more information

Senior Member

02-10-2013

Not quite sure why you were downvoted. Kids these days.


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Razid

Senior Member

02-11-2013

Awesome post. Thumps up


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LordPheonixNZ

Senior Member

02-11-2013

Bump. Nice work. Helped me thank you.


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KinSaniTrix

Member

02-16-2013

Definitely helped me better my knowledge about the new ranking system. I definitely agree with everything you posted.


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Tyrant Zell

Senior Member

02-16-2013

I just wish that during promotion series matches, if you ever get an AFKER and lose, it shouldnt affect you.


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friedkinz

Junior Member

02-17-2013

Point system is terrible. How can you expect to move the ladder when you get stuck with the worst players in the game? There should be no reason people would lose more games if you place a better value into accepting players into participating in rank games. What is 10 games and know where you get place at? That's a load of bull. I have 500+ games in rank and still stuck in Silver Div. V and what sucks is that hidden ELO system that solo/duo queues you up matches with straight **** players that don't belong in rank. (troll builders, unsupported, harassing and never communicating) The Tribunal wouldn't have exist if League have a better Rank system. Why should I be playing with players in a Bronze Tier when i'm Silver? That just puts your win/lose ratio 20/80 - 30/70. And look at the point system as well, you lose a game that minuses you out 20+ while a win grants you 9+ points? What kind of system is that? You say improve yourself, this is team base game. Cut the ELO system up and let people play in the Tier they belong. Your promotion system is already straight.

I have my rank games recorded and just couldn't believe at the people you allow to play in rank. Players should play with a value, it isn't a normal game. Everything is team base concept, you can't expect just ONE PERSON to carry a whole group. You can't 1v5 a whole enemy team no matter what build you have.