On a massive win streak in ranked, does that mean I'll get a loss streak soon?

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RpiesSPIES

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Senior Member

05-28-2012

depends what elo you reach with your streak, if you're currently in the 1200's, the streak will end and a losing streak may come. if you're in the 1400's, a losing streak may come. if you've passed the 1500's, it is unlikely that you will develop a losing streak (unless you're bad), and if you reach the 1600's, you possibly wont start a losing streak again, but still may lose some games.


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fizzlebeef

Senior Member

05-28-2012

Yes, you will.

Also the loss streak will be equivalent to your win streak. Give or take one.


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The Tyrant

Adjudicator

05-28-2012

No not necessarily my friend. You only go on losing streaks if you're at a elo you currently do not belong at.



Either way keep up the win streaks!


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NojusArturo

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Senior Member

05-28-2012

Yes. Always happens to me.


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AorD

Senior Member

05-28-2012

It's about absolute difference, not ratio, so it's hard to calculate streaks as anything.

200 wins, 100 losses would put you in the top 0.1%, while 2 wins, 1 loss groups you together with thousands of others.

By the time you play a thousand or more games, streaks don't matter at all, they'll fall within your normal variance, which is the endgoal of the Elo system.


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nzzmorea5

Member

05-28-2012

Yes. It's set up that way. Happens all the time no matter how much you get lied to about it.


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Backyard Mime

Senior Member

05-28-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by PorpoiseAlert View Post
Actually the Gambler's Fallacy does not apply to this one. That fallacy only applies when the win/loss chance is genuinely random. In this case, a win streak will increase one's elo significantly, meaning that one is suddenly being matched against higher elo opponents, which is expected to make games more difficult to win and thus increase the chance of losing.


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