If you're not familiar with other games that use Elo system, here's what happening in those leaderboards (let's say 1200 is the starting Elo in those games too):

There are a few exceptional players with 1700+ Elo. You'd expect the exact same number of 700- players, but they don't exist in the practice. The distribution isn't symmetric. Even 900- players are really rare.

Why? The answer is simple. New players come and go, and if they don't do well, they quit the (ranked) games. So new players boost the Elo of "above avarage"/"not noob" players, but they leave before their Elo would fall too low. For the exact same reason the median rank is 1200 of course, but the average Elo of the **active** playerbase is well above 1200 (around 1300 or so).

But if I'm right that won't be the case with LoL. In other games the Elo system is a zero-sum-game, which means if someone lost 10 Elo, someone else gained 10 Elo. But in LoL the queue-dodge penalty, and the rank decay system make this a negative-sum-game. Currently I see queue-dodgers **at least** once in every three draft screen, but I guess this number is far worse below 1200.

So my predictions are (and this is the tldr part):

- The average Elo of the **active** playerbase will be **around or below** 1200.

- The majority of the players will have a really hard time reaching their previous Normal Game Elo.

- We'll see less and less 'clueless' players even in the rank-1200 matches.

*Discuss...*