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The future of the Solo ladder... aka what your Elo really means

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terembura

Senior Member

07-25-2010

If you're not familiar with other games that use Elo system, here's what happening in those leaderboards (let's say 1200 is the starting Elo in those games too):

There are a few exceptional players with 1700+ Elo. You'd expect the exact same number of 700- players, but they don't exist in the practice. The distribution isn't symmetric. Even 900- players are really rare.

Why? The answer is simple. New players come and go, and if they don't do well, they quit the (ranked) games. So new players boost the Elo of "above avarage"/"not noob" players, but they leave before their Elo would fall too low. For the exact same reason the median rank is 1200 of course, but the average Elo of the active playerbase is well above 1200 (around 1300 or so).

But if I'm right that won't be the case with LoL. In other games the Elo system is a zero-sum-game, which means if someone lost 10 Elo, someone else gained 10 Elo. But in LoL the queue-dodge penalty, and the rank decay system make this a negative-sum-game. Currently I see queue-dodgers at least once in every three draft screen, but I guess this number is far worse below 1200.

So my predictions are (and this is the tldr part):

- The average Elo of the active playerbase will be around or below 1200.
- The majority of the players will have a really hard time reaching their previous Normal Game Elo.
- We'll see less and less 'clueless' players even in the rank-1200 matches.

Discuss...


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Xyun

Senior Member

07-25-2010

Riot should have started with 0 Elo instead, at least IMO - similar to the change WoW had in (I think) Season 5 or 6.


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Lilli

Senior Member

07-25-2010

I've pretty much talked about this before, just haven't made a thread about it. None of these claims seem particularly outlandish. I imagine players would not be likely to reach their previous Elo levels simply because there is a smaller player base. People will likely reach a similar place order in the rankings, but theiractual rating will be lower. Also hypothetically the number of clueless players should be reduced based solely on the level requirement. Provided that wont eliminate the issue.


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terembura

Senior Member

07-25-2010

Quote:
Xyun:
Riot should have started with 0 Elo instead, at least IMO - similar to the change WoW had in (I think) Season 5 or 6.


And you can't fall below 0?

If you can then it doesn't matter... it's just a number. It can be +132244232 or -1202013.02103023

If you can't, then the ranks aren't very accurate in lower tiers I guess...


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TigerTunes

Senior Member

07-25-2010

cant say much about that but i can tell you what ranking elo means in my opinion



i was playing with normal people and reached up to 1600points
BUT THEN: i played 10rounds in a row and lost 9 of it. only noobs who;

can only play 1 hero
or get the wrong items
...
...

and its really ****ing me out that im 1400 now. so solo ladder ranking means nothing but luck for me.
thats a team game and if u are lucky u get compatible mates or you get crashed..

if u want to reach the first place u will have to:

1. play a lot
2. have luck
3. carry a whole game (impossible if ur enemies are not noobs)


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Ad Victoriam

Recruiter

07-25-2010

I can actually see the mid level settling a bit higher (around 1300) since the number of people who leave after dropping heavily in elo ranking should artificially increase other players' elo.

And since everyone starts at 1200, I don't think it can really be considered "mid" since there really isn't a set requirement in skill to get to that level.


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