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Disclaimer: I am not a pro. I am not rank 1600+ ELO. Heck, I'm not even lvl 30, and I don't even own Vayne. As such, I am in no position as to whether she is OP. However, I can say with confidence that:
1: She is a strong pick on a team. Why else would she be banned so frequently on the Dreamhack Qualifiers?
2: She has a strong early game, capable of avoiding skillshots and delayed spells, and being able to zone (to an extent) by threat of silver bolts.
3: Fed Vayne will wreck you.
4: She is squishy, yes. A lot of people say that CC counters her, but CC counters a lot of things. It seems a bit imprecise to say that it's a counter. Besides which, many great champions have no CC.
I'm just here to do a bit of analysis on her abilities, and propose a few changes to make her a bit more manageable (i.e. minor nerfs).
Q: It's the main source of her harassment early game. I can't find a number for the range on the tumble, but I assume it's around 3-400. Her autoattack range is 555. For comparison, Irelia's Bladesurge has 950 range. Bladesurge has more mana cost and cooldown, except when it's used to last hit. Both apply on-hit effects, and both put the champion in a good place to harass with further skills (equilibrium strike and condemn). The main differences are that Vayne cannot close long distances by chain-tumbling like Irelia can chain-surge, that Vayne stays at range with her Q, and that Bladesurge cannot be used to escape (you can dodge with it, but it's tricky).
Also, Tumble scales better since it scales by Vayne's AD rather than by a fixed amount based on skill level. 140 AD on bladesurge does make it more powerful in early-mid game, if you level it first. It matches up to Tumble in damage terms a bit more closely by level 13 or so, if Vayne is moderately built for AD. The ult makes the boost larger. By comparison, if Vayne can get to 200 AD, with or without ult, then lvl 5 tumble's boost gets up to 150.
I understand that it's not comprehensive to compare one ability on one champion to one on another, especially when the two characters serve completely different purposes. My main point here is that Tumble is at least as versatile as Bladesurge, yet costs less mana and has faster cooldown (waiting for the the autoattack not withstanding).
Proposed change: Nerf the mana cost slightly, and/or the cooldown. Personally, I'd like 1 or 2 seconds to be tacked onto her Q's CD.
W: % true damage. The only way to stop vayne smacking you around with this is to slow her attack speed or silence her Q and E (additional bolts). Crowd control works too. The only items to get in Vayne's way are Thornmail (which won't work very well if she builds Triforce instead of AD), Frozen Heart, and Randuin's. Your tank should have at least one of these anyway though. Also, HP mitigates the flat damage portion of this a bit.
Proposed change: None, really. By itself, W isn't much of a threat. It's just a warning to focus her fast. It's annoying that there's no easy way to build against it, but oh well.
E: The most drastic change comes here. Phreak said in the patch preview that he doesn't want E to just be another autoattack, and to make it focus more on landing the pin. Damage was nerfed accordingly. However, I have a different idea. What vayne can do right now is attack, Q, attack, Condemn for a quick Silver bolts proc that more or less ignores the autoattack timer.
Proposed change: Change E so that it only applies Silver bolts on the pin, not on the first half of the skill. As a side note, if you hit another target with condemn, it should remove the Silver bolts stack on the first target regardless of whether you pin or not. However, if you condemn a target that already has bolt stacks on it, but whiff the pin, the bolt stacks should stay.
Also, just saying, it's kind of annoying that dislocation skills like Headbutt, Fling, and Condemn make your champion ignore commands given for about a second.
Ult: This is probably one of the better steroids in the game. I'll compare it to singed's ult, which is probably the best defensive steroid unless you want to count Diplomatic Immunity as defensive.
Insanity Potion gives a mix of stats, so it winds up giving a larger bonus in terms of gold worth, even comparing lvl 3 ults when Singed is at 50 for each bonus, but Vayne is at 75 AD. It's hard to put a gold value on movespeed and CC reduction, but vayne gets a ton more chasing movespeed, incidentally making her one of a few characters who can get away with chasing and killing Singed. Stealth on Q makes it almost like deceive but even more annoying. Notably, with some CDR behind it, Tumble will let her spend about half her ult duration in stealth.
Also, shorter cooldown, which doesn't really make that large of a difference when comparing to singed. In fact, since Singed is the master of fleeing, he can make sure that it's up in time for every teamfight by delaying with puddle and poison. So, the longer cd on Insanity potion doesn't make that much of a difference. Similarly, the duration difference isn't that important. Most teamfights don't take 25 seconds, and vayne should be able to focus something down within her ult's duration.
Incidentally, I main Singed. No, I'm not mad about the % true damage... much. My secondary main, Urgot, coincidentally screws over Vayne the second she walks into range of the position-reverser.
Proposed changes: It's not all too powerful, just annoying. I would have proposed that the ult give some sort of boost to her E or W, but the increased AD also affects E's damage. Leave this as it is.
I typed this up in a word processor beforehand.