Elo Hell Does Exist

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EloSatan

Senior Member

03-09-2013

Odds of dying to a firework discharge:

1-in-615,488

Highly unlikely. . . Possible? Happening ? yes


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Zauren

Senior Member

03-09-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavenly Seraph View Post
And that moment when you get that ONE team who follows your orders, makes minimal mistakes, and play smart - that, that right there is your moment in Elo Heaven.
And then you wake up from your wet dream and cry back into Bronze 5


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Fubby2

Member

03-09-2013

But you dont get infinite free lotteries. You do get infinite free games. Just play a lot and you will escape, it is "Possible" but it wont happen where one player ALWAYS gets bad players.

Whatever, think whatever you want dude. Keep blaming others and never advance. I dont care.


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PikachuRPG

Senior Member

03-09-2013

For some reason silver has majority of the player base, not bronze. I think something is wrong here, I believe that's because some players get "luck" out after placement matches. If you win more than 5 out of 10 placement matches, you are in silver. I don't like the new system, I want the old elo system back.


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EloSatan

Senior Member

03-09-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fubby2 View Post
But you dont get infinite free lotteries. You do get infinite free games. Just play a lot and you will escape, it is "Possible" but it wont happen where one player ALWAYS gets bad players.

Whatever, think whatever you want dude. Keep blaming others and never advance. I dont care.
On an individual basis, you are correct. If I, me personally, keep doing my best in every facet, then there is a GOOD chance I will advance to my actual skill level's MMR rating.

But there is a CHANCE that no matter how hard I try, I will be given the worst team mates a major MAJORITY of the time, resulting in me being held back because of bad luck.

It doesn't have to be me, I know the chance is small.

But there are SOME PEOPLE, in relationship to the total amount of people who play, which results in the THOUSANDS, who statistically get screwed thanks to BAD LUCK, way more than they get the GOOD luck.


Most people suck, but there are around 10000 people in this game who will never, or it will take a VERY long time for them to break out of ELO HELL.


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Larrythetapist

Senior Member

03-09-2013

as a stats major, I just popped in to say that the probability of getting heads 1000 times in a row on a fair coin IS NOT 1 in 1000.

It is MUCH, MUCH LOWER.

Thank you.


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KaoticAsylim

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Senior Member

03-09-2013

Theoretically, anything is possible, but in practice, it's a totally different story. That's why Riot stresses that climbing the ladder isn't about huge win streaks until you reach your true elo, it's about being a positive influence on your games and winning more than you lose because of it. It's a slow climb, and only works out after hundreds of games, but eventually the system balances itself out.

Look at it this way; lets assume that ever game has 1 afker (it obviously doesn't but for the sake of argument). Statistically, you should be on the team with the afker exactly 50% of the time. However, since statistics don't work out perfectly in practice, you could be on the team with the afker 5 times in a row, or 100% of the time based on a sample size of 5 games. The probability of this happening is 1/32, obviously a very rare occurrence, and the bigger the sample size, the more statistically likely you will be closer to a 50-50 spread of being on the afker's team. However, since you never afk, your team has only 4 variables, while the enemy team has 5.

Now like you said, theoretically, it's possible for the person to be very unlucky and have the afker consistently more often than other people, and this could be described as "Elo Hell", but using that as the basis for an argument, everyone is shorted or helped by the system slightly. Every person will have a different level of "Elo Hell" hindering them as the statistics don't work out like they would in a perfect world, but the more you play, the higher your chance to reach equilibrium within the system.

TLDR: Theoretically, Elo Hell exists, but only temporarily, and not equally for everyone. Making sure you aren't a variable and making sure you're having a positive impact on your game will more than make up for any statistical fluke holding you back.


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EloSatan

Senior Member

03-09-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by KaoticAsylim View Post
Theoretically, anything is possible, but in practice, it's a totally different story. That's why Riot stresses that climbing the ladder isn't about huge win streaks until you reach your true elo, it's about being a positive influence on your games and winning more than you lose because of it. It's a slow climb, and only works out after hundreds of games, but eventually the system balances itself out.

Look at it this way; lets assume that ever game has 1 afker (it obviously doesn't but for the sake of argument). Statistically, you should be on the team with the afker exactly 50% of the time. However, since statistics don't work out perfectly in practice, you could be on the team with the afker 5 times in a row, or 100% of the time based on a sample size of 5 games. The probability of this happening is 1/32, obviously a very rare occurrence, and the bigger the sample size, the more statistically likely you will be closer to a 50-50 spread of being on the afker's team. However, since you never afk, your team has only 4 variables, while the enemy team has 5.

Now like you said, theoretically, it's possible for the person to be very unlucky and have the afker consistently more often than other people, and this could be described as "Elo Hell", but using that as the basis for an argument, everyone is shorted or helped by the system slightly. Every person will have a different level of "Elo Hell" hindering them as the statistics don't work out like they would in a perfect world, but the more you play, the higher your chance to reach equilibrium within the system.

TLDR: Theoretically, Elo Hell exists, but only temporarily, and not equally for everyone. Making sure you aren't a variable and making sure you're having a positive impact on your game will more than make up for any statistical fluke holding you back.
You don't have to get the team with the afker every game in a row to still be negatively impacted.

Your luck can be bad enough for you to get the afker 3/5 games, with the enemy team getting the afker the other 2/5 games.

This puts you down at a 40% win rate, with lets be gracious and say you win 10% of those 4v5's. That puts you at what, 44% Now the enemy team wins 10% of it's 4v5's, and you're back down to 43%.

Now being a superior player, this ups your win percentage to 50%. You're not going to advance to super high elo with only a 50% win rate.

The point is, you don't have to have the WORST LUCK POSSIBLE. It just has to be BAD ENOUGH to where it prevents you from advancing.


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EloSatan

Senior Member

03-09-2013

Now since you don't have to have the almost impossibly attainable "worst luck ever" losing "EVERY GAME" due to your "bad team", and only need to have "bad enough luck" to prevent you from going over a 50% win rate,

that means there are at least 10000 people who will never/very long term effected be able to advance to their true ELO because of "bad luck".


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Fubby2

Member

03-09-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by EloSatan View Post
On an individual basis, you are correct. If I, me personally, keep doing my best in every facet, then there is a GOOD chance I will advance to my actual skill level's MMR rating.

But there is a CHANCE that no matter how hard I try, I will be given the worst team mates a major MAJORITY of the time, resulting in me being held back because of bad luck.

It doesn't have to be me, I know the chance is small.

But there are SOME PEOPLE, in relationship to the total amount of people who play, which results in the THOUSANDS, who statistically get screwed thanks to BAD LUCK, way more than they get the GOOD luck.


Most people suck, but there are around 10000 people in this game who will never, or it will take a VERY long time for them to break out of ELO HELL.
You are making a big effort to justify being bad at a videogame. The fact is if you play enough you will advance if you are good.