Problem with the LP system and a potential fix

Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

M1ST4K3N

Senior Member

02-21-2013

The Problem
So as it stands, you're supposed to win 2/3 games to advance a division or 3/5 games to advance to the next tier. However, nobody is going to advance to promotion matches following a loss. So really you need to win 3/4 games to advance a division and 4/6 games to advance to the next tier. What's more, if you lose those promotion matches, you have to play and win AT LEAST 2 more games to get another shot at promotion. So, assuming you win those 2 matches, you're looking at having to win 4/5 or 5/7 to get promoted. Most pros don't have win rates above 60%, let alone the 70-80% that is actually required to be promoted. Now obviously if, and when, pros smurf they have much higher win rates at lower ELOs, which is a testament to their skill level. But for players who are honestly better than most of the players in their league tier and/or divison, its frustrating to have win rates of 50%+ and still be stuck where they're at.

So here's a potential solution to the problem.
Once a player reaches their promotion series, lock them into that promotion series at 100 points. Instead of resetting their Win/loss record for the promotion series, simply knock off the oldest games. Require a player to have won 3/5 games to advance a division and 4/7 to advance a tier.

Here are some examples as to how this would work.

Example 1) A player in Silver III gets to their promotion games to get to Silver II. They lose their first 3 and win their next two. Instead of their LP resetting to 75 points, they're still locked in at 100 LP and are still in their promotion series. However, since their last 2 games were wins, they only need to win 1 out of their next 3 to advance.

Example 2) The same player in Silver III gets to their promotion series. They win their first 2 and lose the next 3. Because the next game they play will inevitably knock off a win, they must continue to win 3 games to advance.

Ultimately some players will get screwed with the system, such as the player in example 2, who would need a win rate of roughly 62.5% (assuming he won his next 3 games). Meanwhile some players would benefit from the system, such as player 1, who could potentially advance with a win rate of 50%. This would ultimately be somewhat counteracted by demotions, where the player in example 1 would be demoted if he continued to perform at a sub-par level.


So why would this solution work?
As it stands, the win rates needed to advance are ridiculously high. I'm assuming riot intended for the promotion games to only promote players who are winning the majority of their games (hence the supposed, but inaccurate, 66% and 60% win rates required to move up divisions and tiers respectively). With the new system, Players would still have to win a majority of their games in order to advance (60% and 57%), but the win rates are much more accurate and attainable.

Note: This would not remove demotions or anything of the sort. If a player is obviously outclassed, they will be stuck at the bottom of the tier or they will continue to be demoted after their promotion series. This system would reduce the stress on good players who actually deserve to be promoted, while leaving the players who don't deserve the promotions in relatively the same condition.

I'm always open for suggestions and/or improvements.


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

Loadedup

Junior Member

02-21-2013

Good observation. I agree the current system makes it waaaay too hard to advance. I'm seeing some ppl needing win rates of 80% JUST TO BREAK EVEN. That is outrageous. When you are getting ready to advance to a new tier, i.e. from silver to gold or gold to plat, etc, you start getting 1 to 2 lp for wins once you're above 95 LP. It's crazy.


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

Solemendal

This user has referred a friend to League of Legends, click for more information

Senior Member

02-21-2013

thats the point its supposed to be hard to reward the best of the best


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

JoDari

Senior Member

02-21-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Solemendal View Post
thats the point its supposed to be hard to reward the best of the best
I don't understand you. Are you saying that people up for promotion are the best of the best?

Personally, I don't see what the point of promotion matches are. I understand that you now need them to get to the next division, but I don't understand why anybody at RIOT thought we should have them.


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

LogicalTautology

Senior Member

02-21-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by soccerstud25 View Post
The Problem
So as it stands, you're supposed to win 2/3 games to advance a division or 3/5 games to advance to the next tier. However, nobody is going to advance to promotion matches following a loss. So really you need to win 3/4 games to advance a division and 4/6 games to advance to the next tier.
Nope. Once you win that game to get to 100, it becomes statistically irrelevant.

If I have won 10000 games in a row, and you have lost 10000 games in a row, the odds of either of us winning the next 2/3 games is identical (assuming we are correctly rated).


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

M1ST4K3N

Senior Member

02-21-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by LogicalTautology View Post
Nope. Once you win that game to get to 100, it becomes statistically irrelevant.

If I have won 10000 games in a row, and you have lost 10000 games in a row, the odds of either of us winning the next 2/3 games is identical (assuming we are correctly rated).
That's the problem though. Winning to get to the promotion series makes the win rate required for promotion 75%. If you're in a league that's close to where you should be placed, a win rate of 75% is way too much to expect.


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

angryWelchMan

Senior Member

02-21-2013

your making a logical flaw was LogicalTautology point. Assuming you win 2/3 of your games in your lvl. If you have just won 10 games in a row the probability of you winning the next game is 2/3. The same as if you have just lost 10 games.

Think of it as a coin flip, 1000 heads in a row it still 50/50 shot of getting heads on the next flip.

In order for your idea to hold water you have to assume that winning a game somehow reduce your chance of winning the next game


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

DieMinionsDie

Master Recruiter

02-21-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loadedup View Post
Good observation. I agree the current system makes it waaaay too hard to advance. I'm seeing some ppl needing win rates of 80% JUST TO BREAK EVEN. That is outrageous. When you are getting ready to advance to a new tier, i.e. from silver to gold or gold to plat, etc, you start getting 1 to 2 lp for wins once you're above 95 LP. It's crazy.
I am having that problem in Bronze V. lol I had 94 LP. Won two in a row and got to 99 LP. lol


Comment below rating threshold, click here to show it.

SHMEEPS phd

Senior Member

02-21-2013

OP needs to go back to high school statistics and focus on the part about independent variables.