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### Probability of winning a promotion series.

Seravertei

Senior Member

Quote:
davesmack:

4/8, or 50% chance.

Also, you did 212 twice and left out 122.

Counting 1s and 2s, it's hard.

Xaxziminrax

Senior Member

Quote:
BlkZen:
Well apparently a 6th grader cant count

But there not ... statistically
1 = win
2 = loss

111
112
121
222
221
212
122

so its actually 3/8

2 things:

1) You continue to leave out the series '211' That's an extra win.

2) Even if you don't count one, then how in the fak can you call it out of 8 when you only listed 7 samples? Rofl.

iatre

Senior Member

If the series ends with two wins or two losses, it looks like this:

11
121
122
211
212
22

Which still leaves you with a 50/50 shot (3 out of 6). Yes, it's pedantic, but there's no reason to count the 111 and 112 or 221 and 222 outcomes as distinct.

Teckn0

Senior Member

50% chance... Learn To Math.

Xaxziminrax

Senior Member

Quote:
Teraxe:
if I win exactly 50/50 I will never be promoted. you need to have a series where you go 4 wins and 1 loss to get promoted

if I am at 60 LP and get 20 per win and 20 per loss

I need to win to get to 80 LP, now if I loss I am back to 60 and at same place. I need to win again to start series.

now I am starting my series with a 2 game win streak and need to win 2 of next 3.

He was asking the probability of winning a series, not of getting there. Of course, if you make it to a series, you should be better than the people you are playing with in the first place, so you should have a greater chance than 50% of winning in the first place.

I think I said that in an earlier post in the thread? Not sure.

Mr MacabrĂ¨

Member

It has taken 3 pages... 3 god damn pages... Wow.

Just.

I'm done

so done

davesmack

Senior Member

Quote:
Teraxe:
if I win exactly 50/50 I will never be promoted. you need to have a series where you go 4 wins and 1 loss to get promoted

if I am at 60 LP and get 20 per win and 20 per loss

I need to win to get to 80 LP, now if I loss I am back to 60 and at same place. I need to win again to start series.

now I am starting my series with a 2 game win streak and need to win 2 of next 3.

A couple things you should kow:

1: You aren't instantly dropped you 60 LP unless you fail your series with 2 losses back to back

2: You could be at 96 LP, lose one, be at 80, win one, activate your series, lose the first, win the next 2, and have gotten your promotion off of a 3-2. But yes, the idea is you need to win more than you lose in order to advance. If your win loss is dead even, you are clearly ranked exactly where you should be and don't deserve to advance.

3: People aren't saying you need 50% win loss in order to advance. They're saying you have a 50% chance of winning your series, statistically speaking.

Cryolyptic

Senior Member

whats the probabilty of getting a troll game?

Senior Member

Quote:
BlkZen:
But there not ... statistically
1 = win
2 = loss

*EDIT CUZ I SMART*
1) 111
2) 112
3) 121
4) 222
5) 221
6) 212
7) 122
*DONE EDITZ*

so its actually 3/8

You missed 211, mr smart, which is a win, bringing it to 4/8

Edit: How did you come up with 3/8 when you only ran through 7?

davesmack

Senior Member

Quote:
BlkZen:
But there not ... statistically
1 = win
2 = loss

111
112
121
222
221
212
122

so its actually 3/8

After seeing how many times he's repeated this post despite us all pointing out to him the major flaw in his basic arithmetic, I'm starting to think he's a troll.

There's no way someone could be that stupid and still be able to spell the word "the".