@Riot: 10% Crit chance is actually 8%

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Riot Morgageddon

Player Support Tech Specialist

02-02-2013

2/2/13 UPDATE

I have finished collecting and analyzing the next test, where I managed to obtain ~3000 data points of the same condition: Sivir attacking tank Mundo, with a single zeal and no runes/masteries to influence the 10% crit chance.

TL;DR Version is below.

Final Results For 10% Critical Chance

With this test, I collected 3436 points whether Sivir's autoattack crit or not. For each normal attack, a value of 0 was stored in the Excel document. For each critical, a value of 1 was recorded. Each attack also had the time stamp included on the data.

After the test concluded, this test had a final chance of crit of 8.55%. Unlike the previous test, this one did have several critical attacks early, pushing the early percentage above 10%. However, it quickly dropped to around 8% and remained there, even dipping as low as 7%.

Attached are now comparisons of the first 600 attacks, as well as the 2nd set of data and a combined check as the final graph. I believe that the assumption I can attach the second set of data to the first to get a cumulative probability is valid since the conditions of the test were as identical as I could make, and the only difference should be the random function driving the critical attack chance.

What does this mean?

What this means is that any game lasting beyond 500 attacks seems to have an artificially low critical chance. Whether that is a function of buying new items or just total attacks is something I might look into.

My next test will be 4% crit, and then 50%. I might also come back to look at crit chance as a function of when it is bought to when it drops off, as buying new crit chance items might reset their function, changing it away from the artificial low.

TL;DR

3000 points later, 8.6% for 10% Zeal.
Attacking over 300 times a game makes you artificially low.
5000+ points of data combined has a critical chance of 8.5% for Zeal.


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Volksworgan

Senior Member

02-02-2013

Bumping for interest.


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KADAMA

Senior Member

02-02-2013

kjijk


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Kininarimasu

Junior Member

02-02-2013

Really interesting... Good work, Morgageddon! Would like a red post in here...


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PabloConQueso

Senior Member

02-02-2013

this is pretty cool


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Kaiden

Senior Member

02-02-2013

This is pretty crazy and unneccessarily affects champions who rely on crits, possibly more or less so based on the outcome of future tests


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Gryphon48

Senior Member

02-02-2013

+ a million for scientific inquiry and methods.


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Colfunderscorero

Senior Member

02-02-2013

So assuming 10% is 8%, and 100% is 100%, at some point building crit is more effective than it tells you. For example if you built another 90% crit chance, you would be at 100%, but if 10% is really 8, then you would only have 98%.


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Riot Morgageddon

Player Support Tech Specialist

02-02-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colfunderscorero View Post
So assuming 10% is 8%, and 100% is 100%, at some point building crit is more effective than it tells you. For example if you built another 90% crit chance, you would be at 100%, but if 10% is really 8, then you would only have 98%.
That's partly why I want to test higher % crit rates (30, 40, 50) and whether buying new ones changes to have the artificial high for a hundred or so attacks, and then dips back low again.


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Micalas

Senior Member

02-03-2013

No wonder I would go to lane with 25% crit as Gangplank and never get a crit :P