Elo hell

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adc

Member

01-21-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by PogoPogoPogoPogo View Post
If your true Elo is X, then you'll be able to manage an exceptionally high win rate at X-i for as long as i remains a significantly high number.

However, with each win, i gets small, and as i approaches 0, your win-rate should also approach 50%.


You're not going to simply manage a 75% win rate all the way up until you finally hit your Elo. It's not that black and white. A more realistic example would be starting at an extremely high win rate (say 95%) and that win rate steadily declines to 50% as i approaches 0.


So perhaps if your true Elo is 2400, you manage 95% at every Elo below 1000,
90% win rate from 1000-1499
80% win rate from 1500-1699
70% win rate from 1700-1899
60% win rate from 1900-1999
55% win rate from 2000-2099
52% win rate from 2100-2399

and then a 50% win rate at your true Elo 2400+.



Now, this is just a made up example, but the model helps to illustrate the point I'm trying to make.

The closer you are to the Elo you belong, the closer you are to being at an Elo with other players of your skill level, and therefore your win rate will begin approaching 50%.

But it won't hit 50%, not if you're still truly below your appropriate Elo.
I don't think you could ever get a significant enough number of games to sway the win rate that much. I'd say that if you start off with a high win rate, you're honestly going to gravitate towards something like 52-54%, simply because it'd take an astronomical amount of games for +100-+150 wins over losses to approach 50%.


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frostysam

Member

01-21-2013

the only reason people hate elo hell is because even if you keep 50/50 win rate you still going down in elo in every match you lose go figure that logic wen the guy made the system


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Shadgam

Junior Member

01-21-2013

Pretty sure the matchmaking system makes it so you play against people in your skill lvl...


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