Simple Math: Why Elo Hell doesn't matter.

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Highmoon7

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Member

12-28-2012

Many players complain that they always get the troll teams and that they are better than thier elo. Consider this, if you are a good player and truely not a troll, then there are only 4 spots on your team that can have a troll. The other team, which is not lucky enough to have you, has 5 spots for trolls. This means if a troll joins the game they have a 4/9 chance to join your team and a 5/9 chance to join the other team. If trolls and feeders truely determine the course of the game you should win 5/9 games or 56%. Now some players will just say they have bad luck and get the 4/9 chance every game. However, this is not statistically possible. After having played 30 games you will have a normal distribution of trolls, where 5/9 games they are on the other team. This ratio is achieved with a 95% confidence interval. Meaning you have a 95% chance that you will win 56% of your games. The more you play the higer the interval gets. Most players, however, are too impatient to put in the games and deal with trolls. They want their elo now. The problem is when they don't get they get elo immediately mad then rage on the fourms or become trolls themselves. At the end of the day these players never gain elo. If you truely are a good player and not a troll you will gain elo, as long as you remain calm and play your best. Consider in 30 games with a 56% win ratio you will win maybe 17 games and lose 13. If each game is worth 15 elo, then you will have gained 60 elo. If you play 30 games a week you'll gain 240 elo a month.


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SiKkNdTwiSt3D

Senior Member

12-28-2012

i think trolls are actually people who suck and just play it off like they are just trolling.. lol


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Schmucky85

Senior Member

12-28-2012

First of all, I don't find it any less toxic if the troll is on the enemy team, it's just as disappointing to win a 4v5 as it is to lose one, imo.

That being said, your math has 2 flaws. One, your math assumes there is a troll in every game of the elo range in question. That there is a 9/9 chance of having a troll in the game. This is not the case. From personal observation, the chances of having a troll/fresh 30 are roughly 7/12. Not based on observation though. Regardless, this other variable skews your observations.

Two, you're forgetting the math of the elo system, which causes you to lose more elo for a loss than you would gain for a win, thus counterbalancing the 5/9 win ratio in question. Meaning you have about a 4/9 chance to gain elo in the span of 2 games, one victory one loss. You may have a 5/9 chance to win an individual game, but a corresponding loss makes your elo worse than when you started. This is a large margin, coupled with the unpredictability of "fresh 30's", that causes the "elo hell" phenomenon.

I'm not necessarily advocating elo hell, just stating your explanation, which many others have used as well, doesn't make sense in the elo system.


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ninjagear

Senior Member

12-28-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmucky85 View Post
From personal observation, the chances of having a troll/fresh 30 are roughly 7/12. Not based on observation though.
lolwat

and to clarify, u win/lose elo based on your position in champ select (ei. based on your elo in comparison to the other 9 players in the match), u stand to gain/lose more/less elo.

eg if ur first pick u will gain the least and lose the most, if ur last pick u will gain the most and lose the least

edit: fixed the example


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Swooshter

Senior Member

12-28-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by ninjagear View Post
lolwat

and to clarify, u win/lose elo based on your position in champ select (ei. based on your elo in comparison to the other 9 players in the match), u stand to gain/lose more/less elo.

eg if ur first pick u will gain the least and lose the most, if ur last pick u will gain the most and lose the least

edit: fixed the example
You pretty much just proved the point. If you are first pick, you gain the least elo. Yet,being able to carry a game, is based on you getting a champ that can carry (which is based partially on you pick order). Likewise, if you are last pick, chances are you are going to be stuck with support, in which case you have less of a chance to carry your team. As support, you really need a good ADC. So, the more you are able to carry a win, the less elo you get. This makes afk/trolls/new players, an even bigger factor on a loss.

The other option is to pick a carry champ no matter what, and piss off your team for not playing support or for ksing them. This in turn leads to them afking or trolling.