Statistical Analysis of Tribunal Cases

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Geekweezul

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Senior Member

08-06-2012

Awesome work! Looking forward to the rest!

I fear this is just going to bring in certain people who believe that strictly the # of reports you get determines the verdict. Which is what your data says, but not what the data means...if that makes any sense.


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gnfnrf

Senior Member

08-07-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Geekweezul View Post
Awesome work! Looking forward to the rest!

I fear this is just going to bring in certain people who believe that strictly the # of reports you get determines the verdict. Which is what your data says, but not what the data means...if that makes any sense.
It does, and you are correct, if I understand you correctly. I showed that the number of reports in the case is a strong indicator of the verdict. I didn't claim, and I have no evidence with which to claim, that the number of times a player is reported is directly related to the number of reports in the Tribunal case.


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TrollbunalAbuser

Member

08-07-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by NtentionalFeeder View Post
I'll be honest....I require part 2 ASAP.

And can you provide and PROOF as to the sources of your data? Not that I don't believe you per se, but you're gonna start getting a lot of naysayers in this thread real quick.

People on the forums refuse to acknowledge any problems with the Tribunal; even if Lyte himself says "were working on improving feature x" etc etc.
Well, whether or not there are naysayers depends entirely on the conclusions. If any of the conclusions point out flaws in the Tribunal then the naysayers and downvoters will converge on this thread like flies on sht. If the conclusions show the Tribunal in a positive light then people like Methelod, SimplyAlive, Geekweezul, etc. will all queue up to take turns stroking the OP's member.


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MCerberus

Senior Member

08-07-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrollbunalAbuser View Post
Well, whether or not there are naysayers depends entirely on the conclusions. If any of the conclusions point out flaws in the Tribunal then the naysayers and downvoters will converge on this thread like flies on sht. If the conclusions show the Tribunal in a positive light then people like Methelod, SimplyAlive, Geekweezul, etc. will all queue up to take turns stroking the OP's member.
Everyone who disagrees with you is a troll, got it.


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Geekweezul

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Senior Member

08-07-2012

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Originally Posted by MCerberus View Post
Everyone who disagrees with you is a troll, got it.
We just have to ignore the likes of him. He just wants to detail the thread. This is the first thread in a long time that actually has promise in this forum.

I for one can't wait for part 2.


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Mokkun

Senior Member

08-07-2012

So, theshim provided the Red answer to the odd cases, you should update this before I develop a twitch.

In all seriousness though, this is fairly interesting.

Some other notes:

You may want to point out that riot claims that the number of reports to get the Tribunal, exceeds the number of reports we see in a case. (I'm slightly worried that someone is going to use your data to show that you need very few reports to end up in Trib.)

The increased punish rate for more reports makes me wonder how much this reflects forum posts we've seen for auto-pardoning for cases with only 1 report / very few, vs how many of such people simply accrued few reports due to non-toxicity.


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LittleDi

Senior Member

08-07-2012

+1 vote op. Data crunchers always in short supply.


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gnfnrf

Senior Member

08-07-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mokkun View Post
So, theshim provided the Red answer to the odd cases, you should update this before I develop a twitch.
Hmmm.... there's a problem there, though.

I can remove the 112 no-longer-a-mystery games from my dataset, certainly. But we don't actually know how the bug works. It's entirely possible that there are duplicate pardon cases as well. The problem is, I have no way to detect and remove them (since they will have a punishment of None regardless). So, if I remove the duplicate punish cases, but leave the duplicate pardon cases, my data will be biased.

I could discard all cases in my dataset from the range in which they occurred, since it seems to be isolated in time. I'm not sure what to do; I'll need to think about it.


Quote:
In all seriousness though, this is fairly interesting.

Some other notes:

You may want to point out that riot claims that the number of reports to get the Tribunal, exceeds the number of reports we see in a case. (I'm slightly worried that someone is going to use your data to show that you need very few reports to end up in Trib.)
This is indeed true. From the perspective of my analysis, we can't draw any conclusions about how often people are reported.

Quote:
The increased punish rate for more reports makes me wonder how much this reflects forum posts we've seen for auto-pardoning for cases with only 1 report / very few, vs how many of such people simply accrued few reports due to non-toxicity.
This is something I might look at in part 4 (user requests) but a quick peek at the numbers says that the single report cases have a very different agreement profile than other cases. More than half of single-case pardons are by an overwhelming majority, whereas almost none of the punishes are.


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Mokkun

Senior Member

08-07-2012

Hmm, I can see how not knowing if there were duplicate pardons would be the case. I think I remember seeing the duplicate cases when they were happening, we kept getting same cases over again (if that was that), and I don't remember pardoning any.
Unfortunately, I'm not a statistically relevant data point by myself.


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theshim

Senior Member

08-08-2012

Here's a thought - what, if anything, is the correlation between Ally to Enemy report ratios and punishment margins? This is one that I'd like to see.


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