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Another Fundamental Flaw In The Elo System

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avatarofrandom

Senior Member

08-09-2010

Quote:
gowfaec:
+1. Also, if you are better then your Elo, you will win more then you lose on average, climb up in ranking until you are at your proper(ish) Elo, and stay there until you get better. Played 100 games and you're rank 1200? Sorry to break it to you, but you're 1200 Elo.


So what about the guy that only solo ques (in the truest form... no due) and plays the same set of champs yet has two accounts in very different brackets? I have an account ranked 1524 and one ranked 1208 with about 30 games played on each. I have my on and off games but being able to go back and forth and play within these two brackets, I can really see how the outcome of MOST of my 1200 bracket games are completely random. While the 1500 bracket games go by which team works the best together and which team counter picked better at champ select.

Match making says that I am the one of the top 800 solo ranked players and at the same time I don't make the cut for the top 30000 players. Something is obviously wrong with the 1200 and below bracket.


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Mordwyrhta

Senior Member

08-09-2010

Quote:
avatarofrandom:
So what about the guy that only solo ques (in the truest form... no due) and plays the same set of champs yet has two accounts in very different brackets? I have an account ranked 1524 and one ranked 1208 with about 30 games played on each. I have my on and off games but being able to go back and forth and play within these two brackets, I can really see how the outcome of MOST of my 1200 bracket games are completely random. While the 1500 bracket games go by which team works the best together and which team counter picked better at champ select.


30 games isn't enough for the average ELO system to determine skill.

I would put money on the fact that if you put 2 to 3 hundred games in both accounts, your ELO on both would be nigh identical.

The more games for the ELO to use, the more accurate it is.


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avatarofrandom

Senior Member

08-09-2010

Quote:
Mordwyrhta:
30 games isn't enough for the average ELO system to determine skill.

I would put money on the fact that if you put 2 to 3 hundred games in both accounts, your ELO on both would be nigh identical.

The more games for the ELO to use, the more accurate it is.

Of course it will settle but I really don't think it will settle much above the 1200 bracket due to the random involved there. You really do have to get lucky for at least a few games in a row in order to break free. Yes, I know how to try to lead a team that is failing and not raging. I understand how to help others build champs if they're feeding or not playing well but many times, people are just too bad and let things get way out of control. Sometimes they refuse to switch lanes even though their champs would do much better in a different lane. They also sometimes just refuse to listen (whether by choice or not really) and communication is really key in this game. The random involving the people in this bracket is just too much.

I even tried tank-carry morde to roflstomp them and that even fails sometimes though (I had one game with 4-5 turrets in my name and was 19/6/10, and yet we lost because we had teammates that refused to stay together and fight and who had fed themselves to being level 11 while everybody else is 18.

Either way, I'm going to keep playing both but I don't think I'm going far above 1550 or below 1450 (that's where it seems to have settled) on one account and I doubt I will break far from 1200 anytime soon. It's just too random.


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NefariousRaven

Recruiter

08-09-2010

Quote:
avatarofrandom:
Of course it will settle but I really don't think it will settle much above the 1200 bracket due to the random involved there. You really do have to get lucky for at least a few games in a row in order to break free. Yes, I know how to try to lead a team that is failing and not raging. I understand how to help others build champs if they're feeding or not playing well but many times, people are just too bad and let things get way out of control. Sometimes they refuse to switch lanes even though their champs would do much better in a different lane. They also sometimes just refuse to listen (whether by choice or not really) and communication is really key in this game. The random involving the people in this bracket is just too much.

I even tried tank-carry morde to roflstomp them and that even fails sometimes though (I had one game with 4-5 turrets in my name and was 19/6/10, and yet we lost because we had teammates that refused to stay together and fight and who had fed themselves to being level 11 while everybody else is 18.

Either way, I'm going to keep playing both but I don't think I'm going far above 1550 or below 1450 (that's where it seems to have settled) on one account and I doubt I will break far from 1200 anytime soon. It's just too random.


Eh, every time I get close to 1400, I get vaulted back down by a series of idiotic teammates. The system is broken, but I have lost faith it will ever be fixed. I literally 1 on 5'd one game as Vlad, took out 3 of their team, put the other two to half, and the 4 idiots on my team couldn't finish off the last 2 half dead players on theirs. Those are the teammates matchmaking feels I am at the same level of skill with..... just Wow.

ELO apparently thinks I am a.... 1180 - 1356 or something player..... I can tell the system is reliable with such amazing pinpoint accuracy.

The problem is alleviated a bit when I 2 man the queue, but every time I try to truly solo-queue, I get a crapfest of idiots to be teamed with. I had the same person on my team a couple days ago for 3 games in a row, he played master yi every single game, went like 0-5-1 every game, and built tiamat/zerker boots every single game, even after we explained to him how bad they are for yi.

Don't expect MM to work anytime soon, I feel the pride of some specific Riot employees is getting in the way of just admitting ELO doesn't work in a team based game..... you know who I'm talking about Z. After thousands of suggestions have been offered on the matter, you just turn a blind eye instead of actually trying to fix it. We don't need little mathematical nudges one way or another, we need a RADICAL freaking revamp of the system.....

I realize I am faaaaarrr from the best player, very far, but I'm definitely above the current crop of tards that I am destined to be stuck with. I can see it, my friends can see it, matchmaking can't for some reason........


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PsiRedEye22

Senior Member

08-09-2010

Everyone is aware that the ELO system in this game is pretty much a joke, except for the Diamond-tier players who only arrange team with other Diamond-tiers.


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gowfaec

Senior Member

08-09-2010

Quote:
NefariousRaven:


ELO apparently thinks I am a.... 1180 - 1356 or something player..... I can tell the system is reliable with such amazing pinpoint accuracy.
.


It's hard because Elo follows a logarithmic distribution. The closer you are to 1200~ the harder it is for the system to place you because there are so many people there. 75% of the ladder above 1200 are also below 1350. 30000 players in a 150 elo band. If you're around there skill wise it can be easy for you to be tossed around.



And yes 30 games is no where near enough for you to be at your true level. I'm top 200 right now, I'm absolutely sure I'll drop to max top 1000 when everything evens out.


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NefariousRaven

Recruiter

08-09-2010

Quote:
gowfaec:
It's hard because Elo follows a logarithmic distribution. The closer you are to 1200~ the harder it is for the system to place you because there are so many people there. 75% of the ladder above 1200 are also below 1350. 30000 players in a 150 elo band. If you're around there skill wise it can be easy for you to be tossed around.

And yes 30 games is no where near enough for you to be at your true level. I'm top 200 right now, I'm absolutely sure I'll drop to max top 1000 when everything evens out.


The reason it can't place me has nothing to do with the number of people in my bracket and everything to do with it not taking my individual skill into account. Obviously regular ELO can't deduce anything because for some BIZZARE reason my team epicly destroys some games and other games we get raped. Man, who would've thought the skill level of of teams in a multiplayer random matched game could fluctuate so freakin' much.... I'll tell you who... me, along with 1000 other people that complain every day about the horribad MM.

And I've played far more than 30 games so you can't use that against me.


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Mordwyrhta

Senior Member

08-09-2010

Leadership is an important skill.

As I mentioned in a previous post, a million super soldiers isn't worth a single good leader.

If you've got godlike champ skill and still low ELO, work on your leadership skills as that's obviously dragging you down.

This is not a game of individual skill and no rating in the game should be based on individual skill.


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gowfaec

Senior Member

08-09-2010

Quote:
NefariousRaven:
The reason it can't place me has nothing to do with the number of people in my bracket and everything to do with it not taking my individual skill into account. Obviously regular ELO can't deduce anything because for some BIZZARE reason my team epicly destroys some games and other games we get raped. Man, who would've thought the skill level of of teams in a multiplayer random matched game could fluctuate so freakin' much.... I'll tell you who... me, along with 1000 other people that complain every day about the horribad MM.

And I've played far more than 30 games so you can't use that against me.


Oh I'm not using the 30 game argument against you, if you've played a lot of games you're probably where you belong, ish.

It is taking your individual skill into account. Stop looking from game to game and look at the big picture. You're better then everyone at your current Elo right? Well, over enough games both teams will get bads, however whatever team you're on has less of a chance to get bads because you yourself are good. Right? 4/5*baddie chance on your team, 5/5*baddie chance on their team.

Games are stomps because you're playing at a lowish skill level - people generally play aggressively and are rewarded when it goes well, but snowballs horribly against them when they play badly.


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