What if scenarios

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ManaBananaKrill

Senior Member

01-09-2012

What if it snowed in San Francisco?


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Dobagoh

Member

01-09-2012

If a man offered you three boxes, two contain rocks and the third pure gold (they all weigh the same), and asked you to pick a box to keep, and after you pick a box a random, he opens one of the remaining boxes, showing it is full of rocks, and says "Do you want to switch to the other box?", do you exchange for the 3rd, unopened box, in order to maximize your chances of getting the gold?


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Mar The Dragon

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Senior Member

01-09-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by ManaBananaKrill View Post
What if it snowed in San Francisco?
I would start a flash mob snowball fight.


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Mar The Dragon

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Senior Member

01-09-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dobagoh View Post
If a man offered you three boxes, two contain rocks and the third pure gold (they all weigh the same), and asked you to pick a box to keep, and after you pick a box a random, he opens one of the remaining boxes, showing it is full of rocks, and says "Do you want to switch to the other box?", do you exchange for the 3rd, unopened box, in order to maximize your chances of getting the gold?
Logically it would not maximize my chances of getting gold since it is a 50/50 chance so I would just go ahead and keep my first choice.


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Dobagoh

Member

01-09-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by mar the dragon View Post
logically it would not maximize my chances of getting gold since it is a 50/50 chance so i would just go ahead and keep my first choice.
lol so wrong don't use the word 'logically' to describe things that aren't logical

yea, 50/50 chance during the 2nd choice. what was the chance when you first picked? lol? logical fail


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Mar The Dragon

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Senior Member

01-09-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dobagoh View Post
lol so wrong don't use the word 'logically' to describe things that aren't logical

yea, 50/50 chance during the 2nd choice. what was the chance when you first picked? lol? logical fail
Perhaps logical was the wrong word.

But anyway, at first it was 33/33/33 chance, after one box of rocks was eliminated it was 50/50 chance between my box and his box so switching boxes would not change my chances of getting the gold. I stick with my first choice.


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Dobagoh

Member

01-09-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mar The Dragon View Post
Perhaps logical was the wrong word.

But anyway, at first it was 33/33/33 chance, after one box of rocks was eliminated it was 50/50 chance between my box and his box so switching boxes would not change my chances of getting the gold. I stick with my first choice.
Go from 1/3 chance to 1/2 chance of getting the gold by switching

Conclude it would not increases chances by switching

Pro logic

Want to try again?


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Mar The Dragon

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Senior Member

01-09-2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dobagoh View Post
Go from 1/3 chance to 1/2 chance of getting the gold by switching

Conclude it would not increases chances by switching

Pro logic

Want to try again?
Dude

3 boxes, 2 rocks, 1 gold

I take one box with a 33/33/33% chance of getting gold

1 rock box is eliminated

2 boxes, 1 rocks, 1 gold

50/50% chance of having the gold box now since there are only 2 unknown boxes

He has one unknown box and so do I, either one could be either gold or rocks

Since the chances are 50/50% then switching boxes would not change my chances of having the box with gold

WHAT AM I SUPPOSEDLY GETTING WRONG?!?!


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Dobagoh

Member

01-09-2012

Here let me spell it out for you.

You pick box 1. Guy eliminates a random box.

If box 1 has gold, you switch to a box with rocks, you lose.

If box 1 has rocks, you switch to 3rd box, you win.

If box 1 has rocks, you switch to 3rd box, you win again. (2 possible rock boxes to eliminate, so you have two outcomes)

Switching gives you 2/3 chance of winning, not switching gives you 1/3 chance of winning.

---------

Other way:

You random pick a box, 1/3 chance of winning
One box is eliminated.
You now have 1/2 chance of winning by switching.

Your chances 'improved' by 1/6, why would you not switch?


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Mar The Dragon

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Senior Member

01-09-2012

I know that. That means that that is one of the 2 boxes full of rocks, so either the one I have or the second one he has if full of gold and the other has rocks in it. So therefore, between the two unopened boxes, there is a 50/50% chance of the one that I chose to have gold in it.


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