'Why you probably aren't super high tier ranked' explained via coin tosses.

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Falling Objects

Senior Member

09-03-2013

I'm going to level with you, anonymous reader. Assuming that any given reader is truly random, and that said reader is level 30 and has finished their placement matches... I'd bet $100 that you're a bronze player, or Silver V ranked. And from these bets, I'd be a very wealthy person.

How rich? Bout $1,421,300. This pool is linearly scaling. I could bet $1000, and have ~$14M cash. Incidentally, this is somewhat of the same reason why casinos are a business. But I digress, this is not the point of my thread.

And now, it's time for a healthy bit of disillusionment via coin flipping-

Flip a coin. If it's tails, odds are you're a bronze player.

If you got heads, flip it again. If you get tails, you might be a Silver player (50% to 53% required to be in silver. You'll get what I'm saying here if you check the chart).

If you got heads, repeat this process until you get tails, but if you manage to get a total of 4 heads in a row, congratulations, you're likely a gold player. Otherwise, you're probably silver.

Wanna be challenger? You'll need 12 heads in a row (And somebody will have to get kicked out of challenger, AND there's already a queue-ish sort of thing to get in).

Just consult this 'chart'. The number on the left is the number of coinflips in a row that land on heads, and the number on the right is the percent probability of this occurring.

Quote:
1 100* BRONZE
2 50 BRONZE
3 25 SILVER
4 12.5 GOLD
5 6.25 GOLD
6 3.125 PLATINUM
7 1.5625 PLATINUM
8 0.78125 DIAMOND
9 0.390625 DIAMOND
10 0.1953125 DIAMOND
11 0.09765625 STILL DIAMOND
12 0.048828125 CHALLENGER
* 100% of players can and will obtain a bronze rating at a minimum, even if they are currently unranked.

referenced to a chart that gives the total number of players in each tier total number of players in each tier, and converted to percentiles.

Players regularly overestimate what their skill level merits them as far as ranked tier goes. You may be a diamond player, you may be a bronze player, I honestly don't know. However, just keep this in mind- MOST players will be Bronze, SOME players will be Silver, and VERY FEW will be gold or higher.

This chart is not meant to say that where you're placed off is a **** shoot luck based event- individual player skill and ability to learn and improve will determine where you end up (In the long run). Think of it as the 'odds that you are currently as skilled as a _____ tier leveled player' chart.


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Maximum Riven

Senior Member

09-03-2013

You seem to imply that playskill is a fixed value.

Do you really think people are "locked in"?


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TinyHugeMonster

Member

09-03-2013

i jut see numbers and ... derp herp derp ...

sorry i went full ******


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Falling Objects

Senior Member

09-03-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximum Riven View Post
You seem to imply that playskill is a fixed value.

Do you really think people are "locked in"?
Players aren't locked in by their skill given their potential (And the potential of others) to improve, and I do agree this is a gross over simplification. Generally speaking though, the distribution of the entire player base will stay around these numbers. This just shows fresh level 30 players their odds, so to speak, that they fall within any given category.


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tainteddaze

Senior Member

09-03-2013

how is flipping a coin telling you what skill level you are. Your pretty much saying hey there is no skill its just blind luck. That dude isn't timing dragons/barons/skills/tp/buffs/enemy death timers and that player isn't controlling the map better then you. O that that player isn't 20/0 while your 0/20. No it was all luck why he got to challenger.


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Faceplosion

Senior Member

09-03-2013

Bump for logic, a rare creature on these forums.


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Zei

Senior Member

09-03-2013

What do the percentiles indicate? Is it telling me that 100% of people are in bronze V? I'm confused...


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Maximum Riven

Senior Member

09-03-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Falling Objects View Post
Players aren't locked in by their skill given their potential (And the potential of others) to improve, and I do agree this is a gross over simplification. Generally speaking though, the distribution of the entire player base will stay around these numbers. This just shows fresh level 30 players their odds, so to speak, that they fall within any given category.
But, if all you are showing them is the "odds" that they will make the decision to put enough effort into this game to earn X rating, the stat is rather meaningless no?

The odds only matter here if some degree of natural talent is required. If literally anyone can grind up the system the statistics (while true) are meaningless to the average level 30.


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Falling Objects

Senior Member

09-03-2013

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zei View Post
What do the percentiles indicate? Is it telling me that 100% of people are in bronze V? I'm confused...
100% of players are at least bronze.

53% of players are at least silver.

8.9% of players are at least gold.

Etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tainteddaze View Post
how is flipping a coin telling you what skill level you are. Your pretty much saying hey there is no skill its just blind luck. That dude isn't timing dragons/barons/skills/tp/buffs/enemy death timers and that player isn't controlling the map better then you. O that that player isn't 20/0 while your 0/20. No it was all luck why he got to challenger.
You're not understanding the point of this thread. "statistic odds that you are" is not "your actual skill level". Statistically speaking, you're probably going to be right if you told some random LoL player that they're bronze tier in ranked. Does that mean that they're bronze players? No. Does this mean that individual players can't improve and go up tiers? Considering how I was bronze in season 1, and got as high as Platinum II this season, no. This chart references mass distribution of players.

If you want to change perspective for a moment, this chart determines the probability of what innate skill and playing ability any given person has.


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Vicvictorw

Senior Member

09-03-2013

The outcome of many Ranked games do feel like a coin toss.

I can get behind this explanation.


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