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-   -   Elo Hell Does Exist (http://forums.na.leagueoflegends.com/board/showthread.php?t=3206700)

EloSatan 03-09-2013 09:01 AM

Elo Hell Does Exist
 
People like to say that there is no such thing as Elo Hell.

They say because if you never leave games, never disconnect, you have like, a 55% higher chance of being on the team that doesn't get the leaver afk.

Granted. That's a great argument.

Now here is mine.

If there is a 1% possibility, there is a 99% possibility.
All of these possibilities can exist, so in fact, they do exist.

Just because statistically, it SHOULD BE 55%, that doesn't mean that it only being 5% DOESN'T HAPPEN.

Statistically, no one should win the lottery, because on the individual basis, the chance is so small. But when you look at it from the whole group of people playing,
with 42 million people buying lottery tickets with a 1 in 100 million chance, someone will win the lottery, statistically, about once every 2 weeks.

This logic applies to ELOHell.

Just because on each individual basis, the percentage should be around 55% of your not getting the feeder, and your win percentage should ultimately fall around 50% based on match making,

There will be those few who just have bad luck.

If the possibility exists, then it IS HAPPENING.

Some people ARE getting the short straw repeatedly.
Some people ARE getting the team with the feeder, with the AFK, the whiney ****** bags OVER AND OVER.

Not as many as most people claim. Alot of them are just bad and deserve to be where they are.

But statistically, if you flip a coin 100 times in a row, it IS possible for it to never come up heads. Highly unlikely, but it IS POSSIBLE.

Since there are millions of people playing this game, It has to be expected that there are at least THOUSANDS of people who just have bad luck.

TL:DR

Elo Hell Exists

-The guy who can make the claim best.

*update 1* Still no sound 100% complete refuting of the arguement. Claim of EloHell's Existence remains, Highly accepted that the number of people who are held back by bad luck is a small number in the thousands, in comparison to the millions who play this game daily.
*update 2* A ton of people saying that because it's improbable, it must be impossible. I say because it's a sample size of millions, even a small chance like .01 percent would still equal thousands. I've been insulted repeatedly and told my theory is wrong, despite them actually being able to prove me wrong without using the "you don't know what you're talking about" phrase.

Some people actually believe that Improbable means Impossible, and they don't understand that the more games played, the higher the chance that some people will be stuck with the worst team enough times to prevent them advancing past a 50% win rate.

*update 3* we came to the conclusion that it's around 2200 out of 12,000,000 people who are throttled from advancing to their true elo by "bad luck"

Heavenly Seraph 03-09-2013 09:04 AM

And that moment when you get that ONE team who follows your orders, makes minimal mistakes, and play smart - that, that right there is your moment in Elo Heaven.

EloSatan 03-09-2013 09:05 AM

Because it can happen

It does happen.

EloSatan 03-09-2013 09:08 AM

On an individual basis, no one should ever be struck by lightning.

Because the chance is so small, it is a fact that NO ONE is ever struck by lightning.

Redeemed RivĂŞn 03-09-2013 09:09 AM

Most people that complain about Elo hell think its a coin with 2 tails though

Xtazed 03-09-2013 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EloSatan (Hozzászólás 35421002)
People like to say that there is no such thing as Elo Hell.

They say because if you never leave games, never disconnect, you have like, a 55% higher chance of being on the team that doesn't get the leaver afk.

Granted. That's a great argument.

Now here is mine.

If there is a 1% possibility, there is a 99% possibility.
All of these possibilities can exist, so in fact, they do exist.

Just because statistically, it SHOULD BE 55%, that doesn't mean that it only being 5% DOESN'T HAPPEN.

Statistically, no one should win the lottery, because on the individual basis, the chance is so small. But when you look at it from the whole group of people playing,
with 42 million people buying lottery tickets with a 1 in 100 million chance, someone will win the lottery, statistically, about once every 2 weeks.

This logic applies to ELOHell.

Just because on each individual basis, the percentage should be around 55% of your not getting the feeder, and your win percentage should ultimately fall around 50% based on match making,

There will be those few who just have bad luck.

If the possibility exists, then it IS HAPPENING.

Some people ARE getting the short straw repeatedly.
Some people ARE getting the team with the feeder, with the AFK, the whiney ****** bags OVER AND OVER.

Not as many as most people claim. Alot of them are just bad and deserve to be where they are.

But statistically, if you flip a coin 100 times in a row, it IS possible for it to never come up heads. Highly unlikely, but it IS POSSIBLE.

Since there are millions of people playing this game, It has to be expected that there are at least THOUSANDS of people who just have bad luck.

TL:DR

Elo Hell Exists

-The guy who can make the claim best.

statistically you are in fact a purple corndog, thank me later.

Bland 03-09-2013 09:11 AM

Millions of people playing times a chance of 2^(-1000) - using your example of 1000 times head tosses - still rounds to 0 on my calculator, sorry...

You are grossly overestimating the chance of ALWAYS getting the short end of the stick. Even if we had billions of players, the chance would still be so low it'd be unrealistic to believe that even a single player has that much bad luck.

edit: unless they haven't played a lot... I certainly agree you can get unlucky streaks and possibly even stick in an area you don't belong in for a few games... but not for as long as most people are claiming.

cottonycloud 03-09-2013 09:12 AM

The chance of a person being in that1000 is so small that you shouldn't consider being part of that for the most part

YoungGoN4v5 03-09-2013 09:16 AM

Yes, because believing that the fates have magically conspired against you is the best way of proving that you have the skill and drive to achieve higher.

EloSatan 03-09-2013 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bland (Hozzászólás 35421219)
Millions of people playing times a chance of 2^(-1000) still rounds to 0 on my calculator, sorry...

You are grossly overestimating the chance of ALWAYS getting the short end of the stick. Even if we had billions of players, the chance would still be so low it'd be unrealistic to believe that even a single player has that much bad luck.

You don't have to ALWAYS get the bad team.

You can get the good team maybe 1/10 games. Which is a 1/1024 chance.

Even getting the good team 1/4 games is still enough of a bad ratio of good luck vs bad luck, while still being possible, that it's enough to keep you in Elo Hell indefinitely.

And then what if 1/4 of those times YOU'RE suppose to win because you have the good team, you have a bad game or the game disconnects you(which seems to be happening alot lately).? So even though you go carry status 21-3 every game, It's already been determined by fate that you were going to lose based on the quality of the teammates assigned to you.

They drag you down and their inability causes you to lose a game that based on your individual performance, you should have won.
But it's a team game, and statiscally, you're only suppose to have a 1/5th influence in determining the outcome of the game.

It is very possible that there are HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of people who are getting stuck on the BAD TEAM 70% percent of the time. Even if they perform EXTREMELY WELL, they can't have much more than their 1/5th influence on the game, which in combinatation with the negative influences of BAD teammates, throttles your chance at winning WELL BELOW 50%

Which being well below a 50% win rate is NO SUCCESSFUL PATH to breaking out of LOW ELO.

On each individual basis, you flip that coin, it's got a 50-50 chance to be either heads or tails.

but sometimes, which has to equate for some people,
it just very well might end up tails every single flip indefinitely.

The more people playing the game, the higher the chance that this possibility exists.

There are MILLIONS playing.


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