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-   -   Facts behind the Tribunal (A Guide with math)! (http://forums.na.leagueoflegends.com/board/showthread.php?t=3003864)

Great Pyrenees 01-15-2013 07:01 AM

Facts behind the Tribunal (A Guide with math)!
 
Hello fellow Summoners!

Do you wonder how the tribunal works? Then this is the guide for you! I have been a big fan of the Tribunal since I began playing League of Legends. I was dying to see the math behind it and provide a guide on the math behind the tribunal. I achieved this guide by reading every post by Lyte I could find over the past 3 months. I hope you find it as informative as it is interesting. Please sticky!

Facts about the Tribunal

1) 12 million people play LoL every day
http://www.pcgamer.com/2012/10/12/le...raft-in-korea/

2) The average player plays 1 bot game and 2 pvp games (Per LoL stats)
1 bot game 2.4 mill
1 pvp game 4.8 mill
2nd pvp game 4.8 mill
for 12 million players playing every day!

3) The average player gets 1-5 reports per 100 games played (Per Lyte)
“Right now, on NA, depending on which population you pull (players with no ban histories, players with ban histories but are 'good' now, etc), you actually do see that the typical player only has a 1-4% reports/game ratio in the lifetime of their account.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...6#post32098236
“Consider that the average player receives about 4-5 reports every 100 games and you can see how absurd the difference is.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...7#post31692767

4) To face the tribunal you need 12% reports or 12 in 100 games played (Per WookieeCookie)
On a personal note I suspect the actual % is 25% beacuse I have never seen anyone in tribunal under this %!

"In fact, you've actually only been reported in .08% of the games you've played.” @WookieeCookie
“players who end up in the Tribunal are reported anywhere from 12% to 30% of the games they've played.” @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...50996#31850996
“You have been reported in 26% of your games, which is dramatically higher than the rest of the population” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...2#post27612922

5) 98% of players in NA will never once face the tribunal (Per Lyte)
“On NA, 98% of players will probably never see the Tribunal.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...80273#31180273

6) If you got 9 reports in 1 game it still only counts as 1 report from that game (Per Lyte)

7) Based on average statistics the Tribunal on average pardons 20% of people who face the tribunal (Per Justice Review stats)

8) There is a minimum number of reports required to face the tribunal it is not a Ratio system (Per Lyte)
“Typically a large number of reports are required before a player appears in the Tribunal, so if you had a bad game and are reported, don’t worry! You will most likely not end up in the Tribunal.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...1#post27540071

9) In other words a 1:1 ratio in 20 games will not send you to the tribunal (Per Lyte) However you are in danger of a Riot Audit.

10) If you average a 1:1 ratio in 20 games you can play a lot of games without being reported and eventually your old reports decay (3 months) (Per Lyte)
“This isn't a mistake. This punishment is deserved. This player has received over 1000 reports in 900 games. That's a staggering number that almost no players ever reach.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...7#post31692767

11) It takes at least 40% reports per games played to find yourself in the top 0.8% of toxic reported players subject to hand riot reviews (Per Lyte)
“You've accumulated hundreds and hundreds of reports. You are reported in almost 40% of your games.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...5#post31228725
“You were reported in nearly every single game you've ever played in that account's history; in fact, you have more than twice as many reports as games played. That's a staggering data point.” “In your case, we audited your account by hand and had to immediately act on it.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...88577#31588577

How do we know we can trust Riot in these internal reviews?
"There is a simpler reason to trust Riot’s internal audit: PROFIT. Riot want to make profit, and more people it bans the less potential profit Riot will make." @RiotKiddington
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...13571#19413571

What does these facts about the Tribunal tell us?
1) The average LoL player plays 90 games per month, 270 games per 3 month cycle.

2) The average LoL player needs 27 reports in 90 games in a single month to face the tribunal.

3) The average LoL player needs 81 reports in 270 games per 3 month cycle to face the tribunal.

4) The average LoL NA player only gets 4 reports in a 90 game month, 12 in a 270 game 3 month cycle.

5) If you are trolled in ELO Hello but do not break the summoners code the 20% pardon rate tells us you will be pardoned!
“I bring this up, because I think you bring up a reasonable fear: "If I slip up in one game do I have to worry about a ban?" But the easy answer is: No. You don't.” @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...49475#31849475

6) If you are punished by the Tribunal you are 99.99% guilty.
Having said that I did find 1 innocent person who got a warning from tribunal. Lyte himself corrected this mistake. My friend Getsuei rightly pointed out to me this quote from the official tribunal sticky "contact Riot Support to fix your record if you have been wrongfully punished". The person who was wrongly punished actually had his case posted in the tribunal forum so that might also be helpful for anyone who is innocent and punished =).
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/....php?t=2493800

7) The average number of people impacted by a person who faces the tribunal
1 bot game 4 times 30 games in a month Equals 120 people affected
1 pvp game 9 times 30 games in a month Equals 270 people affected
2nd pvp game 9 times 30 games in a month Equals 270 people affected
for a total of 660 people affected by a player facing the tribunal in a single month
for a total of 1980 people affected by a player facing the tribunal over a 3 month cycle

8) In the tribunal typically a person gets 1 warning, 1 1 day ban, 1 3 day ban, 1 7 day ban, 1 14 day ban and is then permabanned.

9) This means they faced the tribunal 6 times (Sometimes more). This means it is possible this one person ruined the games of 11,880 games!
“Well it depends. Did they get a Warning? Did they refuse to change after the Warning and then get a 3 Day Suspension? Did they refuse to change after the 3 Day Suspension and then get a 7 Day Suspension? Did they refuse to change after the 7 Day Suspension and then get a 14 Day Suspension? If they did all that and refused to change. Then yes. They could get perma-banned.” @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...50996#31850996
“All perma bans are reviewed by riot before going through to make sure that it has in fact been earned. As you know this perma ban did not appear out of the blue and was only made after a total 9 punished cases.” @Riot DavieB
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...5#post31960895

10) In conclusion no one ever got perma banned who did not deserve it and LoL NA is a better place without them!

Some General questions and answers!

The tribunal is too strict! No its about 19% more lenient than riot!
The tribunal runs at a 80% guilty rate. Or at about a 20% pardon rate. Despite the fact 99.98% of the people sent to tribunal are guilty! If you are punished it is not because the tribunal is too strict it is because you are guilty.
"if almost all 80% of those cases deserved to be punished, is this still a problem in the Tribunal? Phrased differently, if 99.98% of the cases that are punished are 'deserved' or 'warranted,' what's wrong with the fact that 80% of cases are punished?" @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...39541#33239541

The only reason people even vote (Spam punish) is for the free IP! So untrue!
I would like to thank my friend Velore for pointing out that for a few months now there has been no IP reward for judging. We are now part of the Justice Review system going into season three and the only reason for people to judge now is to help out the community!

Is the only reason the tribunal exists becasue it is cheaper having players do Riots job? No!
I would like to thank my good friend PogoPogoPogoPogo for pointing out this great reference from Lyte.
"I have no idea why people assume having a Tribunal is 'cheaper' for Riot. It's more expensive. We still have a full Player Support team that reviews Tribunal cases and we also have a full development team that has to maintain the Tribunal and develop new features for it. If you want to argue about the Tribunal, let's have a discussion about it. Randomly saying it is cheaper or it's about money is basically the opposite of the truth." @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...7#post30696867

Is threatening to report someone a form of harrasment?
If you say it once because they broke the summoners code then no. If you say it because they are unskilled or if you say it multiple times then yes!
"the players that keep convincing others to report someone specific in a game tend to be the most toxic players in the game" @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...1#post27886441

Is it ok to curse? What if it is in retaliation?
“It is not ok to rage at teammates and curse them out. It is not ok to retaliate.” @ Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...1#post31830481

How to avoid the tribunal or can you sum up the summoner’s code in a phrase?
“Players frequently write to my team full of excuses for their case, or fearful that they're going to get banned in the future. They often want to debate the Summoner's Code down point by point. Is it okay to do this? What about that? What if someone else does X, and I do Y to them in retaliation? Can I get banned for Z? And our response can always be summed up with one simple phrase: “Don't be a jerk”” @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...2#post31839662
When someone is mean to you, you are not entitled to: 1) Threaten to have *** with their mothers.
2) Call them names (f***head, d***face, *****) 3) Berate them for "KS"ing. (It's not a thing, IMO. It's a team game, it's not possible to 'steal' something that nobody owns) 4) Yell at them in caps.
5) Call the other teams noobs for losing 6) Declare "bg" because you lost. (I've done this a few times, I understand the frustration. Don't do it) @Damiya
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...5#post31822595

Are Inappropriate summoner names allowed?
“And since technically it violates our naming guidelines I went ahead and replaced it with a temporary name instead.” @Wookieecookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...9#post31221819

About the leaverbuster system!
“Your leaverbuster level will go down as you play without leaving. But unfortunately I can't provide specific time frames as to how much time needs to pass before it decreases. Otherwise less... honorable players would try to game the system as much as possible to their benefit. One thing to keep in mind though is that it is based off of game time played, and not real time. So if you tried to wait three weeks but only played one or two games, your leaver level would not decrease very much.” @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...1#post31772231
“SimplyAlive is right. Your leaver penalty will decay as you play games without dropping off. Eventually it will decay back to zero and you'll have a grace period where you can disconnect from a game or two without getting suspended.” @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...0#post23190740

About innocent people being punished?
“I actually mentioned this in another thread but I hand-reviewed all of these cases over a lunch break. Every single case except the last one deserves the ban for a variety of reasons from pre- and post-game chat to consistent and constant passive-aggressiveness or blatant rage. The last one for the low level Bot player was a mistake. The system isn't perfect, but I'm OK with 1 false positive every 140,000 cases and I'll manually correct the last case.” @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...4#post31233904

Lyte’s email address
Please e-mail me at lyte [[[at]]] riotgames.com. Lyte@Riotgames.com
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...9#post31643299

Did you get banned because of 1 bad game?
No!
"It takes hundreds of reports over dozens of games to end up in the Tribunal and actually even have a case. Just because you see 1 game in the Tribunal case doesn't mean 1 game landed you in the Tribunal." @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...0#post30792140

Are you sure the Tribunal works?
"We know for a fact that only 1.4% of total player base get into the Tribunal, and less than 50% of that actually get into the Tribunal again. So that’s 0.7% of players that will be impacted by the feature you seek. If I take those resources and make features that will affect other 99.3% (or 98.6%) of the player base, wouldn’t that be more effective and impactful?" @RiotKiddington
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...12560#19412560

Are there other ways to get banned other than Tribunal, Leaverbuster and Riot hand selected cases?
Yes if you are rude in chat rooms you can find yourself banned!
"You won't be getting a reform card because you were not banned by the Tribunal. If you don't want to make the same mistake again then you should be aware that chat in the LoL Chat Rooms is monitored and you should be more careful about what services you claim to sell others." @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...9#post31088059

I want to do an experiment with the report system and Tribunal. Is this dangerous? Yes!
"It's pretty cool that you're doing an experiment like this, but I should warn you that if your experiment is successful, all your accounts are likely to have some punitive action taken, not just the extra accounts you've made for the purposes of this experiment. I'd advice against actually following through with this. I love experiments, but I wouldn't want you to get banned in the name of Science." @RiotMontag
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...7#post19975617

How can you tell when someone is intentionally feeding?
Yes intentionally feeding is punishable! Personally I look at all of the reports and if they are a pro and in one game all of a sudden they pretend to be new and have a terrible score its pretty obvious it was intentional.
"Typically when judging Intentional Feeding cases, I look for massively inappropriate items like 5 basic boots, phrases like " I'mma feed then" in the chat, or use my best judgement to determine if someone could reasonably have that score in a game of that length." @EncasedShadow
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...2#post17480772

I am a unskilled player will my Unskilled Player report get me into trouble?
I would like to thank Velore for answering this one and for finding the reference! NO!
"Don't worry, Unskilled Player reports do not show up in the Tribunal. Those reports are just for our research, analyses and system features." @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...php?p=26957077

Why are some Toxic cases pardoned and some Innocent cases punished?
"We keep a close eye on cases like this, so we can see why they would be frustrating. There's a pretty simple explanation for what's going on here though, and hopefully after I share it with you then you'll be a little less discouraged. Think of it like this. Imagine there are 1000 tribunal voters. 80% of those tribunal voters are pretty consistent voters. 10% of those tribunal voters are more strict than usual. 10% of those tribunal voters are more lenient than usual. This can lead to situations like this where we may see a case pardoned where the actual behavior can be questionable." @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...8#post32444098

Do you have a clean slate after a punish? Some breathing room? Yes!
"That’s not what happened here. In fact, since the previous 3 Day suspension the player has been reported in over 45 games. Over 45 Games? That's toxic behavior that affects over 405 players in League of Legends." @WookieeCookie
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...99561#32399561

I only said 1 bad thing in all 5 of my cases. Do I deserve to be punished?
I would like to thank SchierkeWiking for providing this quote and reference! YES!
"The Tribunal verdict is not based on a 'majority' rule; there is also no requirement that all games have to be toxic for it to warrant a suspension. Depending on the case, sometimes 1 game is all that is needed to show that the player deserves a suspension. To Tribunal reviewers, decisions like these are up to you. When you view a Tribunal case, the questions you should ask yourselves are, "Is this player's behavior appropriate in League of Legends?" and "Would I want to play with this player?" @ Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...1#post30696571

Can i get warned then banned for cases close to each other (Double Jeopardy)? No!
I would like to thank Magoomba for providing excellent details on this question! 100% credit due to Magoomba!
"If someone is punished in the Tribunal, and then they end up in the Tribunal again, reports that were made against them prior to the verdict of the first Tribunal case won't show up in the second." @RiotPi
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...72#post9987372
"The Tribunal technically only searches for games since your last ban, so if this actually happened it's a bug. Could you send me the dates of your Reform Cards that supposedly had overlapping games? I just checked your last 4 cards and I don't see any overlapping games." @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...3#post30547083
"I won't post your stats or chat here, but the main reason you were permanent banned was due to games from 11/9/12 to 11/12/12 which were all games after your 2 week ban." @Lyte
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/board/...4#post31413404

This guide in foreign languages
For Brazillian players of LoL my dear friend Makarath translated this guide into Portuguese. I would like to thank him for his great effort and contribution to LoL brazil! Here is his link.
http://forum.legendsbr.com/topic/289...s-do-tribunal/

Funniest Tribunal case ever!
"Health pool too big" "IM A BEAAAARRRR"
http://na.leagueoflegends.com/tribun.../5929642/#nogo

A little about me! Currently Reneckton is my favorite Champion. I have an 85% correct case rate on the Tribunal (Top 300) probably because I am a little lenient. I 100% believe in the tribunal and in Riot. And I look forward to making new friends and hearing your responses! Take care friends =)

YueienGato 01-15-2013 07:06 AM

Great resource and math. Thank you for taking the time to compile this!

Fudouri 01-15-2013 07:40 AM

Woo. I enjoy the compilation, though would like to point out a few faulty assumptions.

Specifically, you use "average" number a lot, which really only works assuming a normal distribution (and even then, icky when you start doing lots of multiplying due to dependent factors).

I don't remember where there is link, but I vaguely remember stats like "most players are reported in less than 2% of their games", which suggests potentially a bi-modal distribution (at least to me, not a statistics guy).

Anyways, otherwise, great to be pointed to!

Saint Latona 01-15-2013 07:41 AM

This should be a stickied thread.

Kranberries 01-15-2013 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint Latona (Hozzászólás 33496728)
This should be a stickied thread.

Agreed.

Also, I want Riot to make a questionnaire so they could run ANOVA on how likely a person is to be permabanned. I'd make for an interesting little experiment.

MFKrazed 01-15-2013 10:00 AM

Interesting. Thanks for doing this.

GON the Mage Guy 01-15-2013 11:12 AM

Cool.

Didn't you do this before? Probably got buried.

Let the conspiracy theories flow!

YueienGato 01-15-2013 06:23 PM

Actually using this as reference for some cases. Cannot repeat how good a resource this is.

Great Pyrenees 01-16-2013 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YueienGato (Hozzászólás 33514519)
Actually using this as reference for some cases. Cannot repeat how good a resource this is.

Thank you for your kind words YueinGato. I took great care to provide as many links to my references as possible and this guide was translated and posted on the Brazilain LoL site a month ago by a friend. I am hoping to get it stickied and I am willing to make any changes to it that Riot may want to make it eligable.

Enterti 01-16-2013 06:25 AM

Is this a new one?


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