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-   -   Explain Elo please? (http://forums.na.leagueoflegends.com/board/showthread.php?t=2794500)

Noir Rain 11-13-2012 12:23 PM

Explain Elo please?
 
Kay, so I was just comparing some of my stats to some of the pro's.

Some of them, it's quite obvious how they are there... 60+% win rate in ranked. Some others, I just don't get it.

I ended s2 with a 51.6% win rate.

The great general Odd One ended s2 with 51.7% win rate.

Is that .1% really a difference of 1300 elo? I mean what the hell?
How is it that .1% is a difference between diamond and silver. Or is it since I started out s2 at sub~800 elo and if I maintain the same win/loss ratios I should expect to end s3 at 2k+?

Elo confuses the hell out of me. I fully believe it should be a much more personal stat than as a "luck of the team" stat. People can argue for both sides, that's not what this is about. I am REALLY hoping to get clarification from someone on the Riot staff tbh. Cause it's just confusing as hell to me.

~Noir Rain

adc 11-13-2012 12:30 PM

First, placement games mean a lot. They give you the definition of your ranked season, and if you go 50% win rate in them, you'll need to have a much higher win rate to get a high Elo.

Second, game amounts. In S2, you were +38, with a 610/572 win-loss ratio. The General is +66, 981/915 win-loss ratio. He's played a significantly larger amount of games, and he probably won his placements.

Let's assume you went 50/50 in your placements. You were around 1200 Elo, maybe 1150, maybe 1250 after them. If you assume an average of 12 Elo per game, you get 420 extra Elo from your wins over losses. Of course, you don't gain exactly 12 Elo per game, and it's probably lower - so we're looking at what, 1400-1450? Since you say you're Silver, that makes sense.

The General, however, probably went 9/1 or 10/0 in his placements. This would immediately put him a few hundred Elo above you (1600~ or so). Add the 66 wins at 12 Elo/game, and you get 792 extra Elo from wins over losses, sticking him at about 2.4k Elo. That sounds about right, does it not? Also, because he went 10/0 or so in his placements, he can have a 52% win rate and be a high Elo player - because he already has a good starting Elo, and he started strong. Also keep in mind that he probably didn't start from 1200 Elo - he was probably 1500-1600, so he (probably) won a lot of his placements and got stuck near 2k at the start of the season.

In short: He has a 52% win rate over a far larger amount of games than you do, and he probably did much better on his placement games than you did. The system works properly, over a large number of games. It won't work properly over a small number of games, because of the way the game works.

I myself am +100~ or so in normals, which would stick me, theoretically, at about 2.4k~ Elo. Clearly I'm not 2.4k, since I get matched in normals with 1400-1700s, and the occasional 2k+er.

Noir Rain 11-13-2012 12:40 PM

Okay, well I don't remember having to place in s2 tbh. I played absolutely terribly in s1 as I had JUST hit 30 before s1 ended. I wanted the Kayle skin lol. Went like 0-5 with the placements in s1 and dropped to 800 elo by going 1-5 to acquire the skin.

Yes, I ended with a top rating of 1465, I dropped about 20 games near the end to end with around 1260.

And win amounts over larger #'s of games shouldn't have huge difference, 51% is 51% over all brackets. I'll be trying to start s3 stronger than I started s2. Sounds like that's about the best I can do.

Thank You for the very detailed and thought out response. I appreciate it. Guess this season will be completely defined by my first games. Also, Sorry for my fragmented response. Tried to touch all subjects but don't have much time to reply in detail, got places to be and things to do.

adc 11-13-2012 12:49 PM

Maybe you just don't remember the placements - they were they. You'd have started at about 1k Elo (ended 800, + 1200 / 2 = 1000 Elo). So the ending at about 1260 makes sense.

And 51% over all brackets isn't true. If I play ten games with a 51% win rate (ignore the fact it isn't possible), I'll have a +0.1 win rate. Given 12 Elo per game, +0.1 = 1.2 Elo above the average.

If I play ten thousand games, with a 51% win rate, I have a +200 win rate (5100 wins, 4900 losses). Given 12 Elo per game, this is 2400 Elo above the average.

A win rate above 50% gets more and more impressive the higher the number of games becomes. If somebody told me they had a 52% win rate over 5000 games, I'd be very impressed. That's really hard to do.

LogicalTautology 11-13-2012 01:14 PM

Win% is a flawed statistic when it comes to measuring skill level. The entire point of the Elo system is to make sure that the more games you play, the closer your win% will get to 50%. Having a higher win% than someone else has literally no bearing on your relative skill levels.

Tensega 11-13-2012 02:11 PM

that moment when someone in games says "oh ya whats your elo, i bet mines better"

Sconee 11-13-2012 02:31 PM

if you win more of your first 50 games your elo will be extremely higher, and then you if you stay at a 50% win rate from there on in you can just float at that elo.

LogicalTautology 11-13-2012 04:04 PM

The effect of your placement games in each season are vastly overrated. If I were to play 10 ranked games of LoL tomorrow and go 0-10, my Elo are the end of Season 3 would probably be about 5 points different, if that, from what my Elo at the end of Season 3 would be if I went 10-0 in ranked games tomorrow instead.
The same is true for anyone who plays more than 50 or so games in a Season.

adc 11-13-2012 04:09 PM

If I go 0-10 in my placement games, I'm going to drop down 400 Elo. That's going to take a lot more wins over losses to make up.

Obscura 11-13-2012 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AD Bottom (Hozzászólás 31369283)
First, placement games mean a lot. They give you the definition of your ranked season, and if you go 50% win rate in them, you'll need to have a much higher win rate to get a high Elo.

Second, game amounts. In S2, you were +38, with a 610/572 win-loss ratio. The General is +66, 981/915 win-loss ratio. He's played a significantly larger amount of games, and he probably won his placements.

Let's assume you went 50/50 in your placements. You were around 1200 Elo, maybe 1150, maybe 1250 after them. If you assume an average of 12 Elo per game, you get 420 extra Elo from your wins over losses. Of course, you don't gain exactly 12 Elo per game, and it's probably lower - so we're looking at what, 1400-1450? Since you say you're Silver, that makes sense.

The General, however, probably went 9/1 or 10/0 in his placements. This would immediately put him a few hundred Elo above you (1600~ or so). Add the 66 wins at 12 Elo/game, and you get 792 extra Elo from wins over losses, sticking him at about 2.4k Elo. That sounds about right, does it not? Also, because he went 10/0 or so in his placements, he can have a 52% win rate and be a high Elo player - because he already has a good starting Elo, and he started strong. Also keep in mind that he probably didn't start from 1200 Elo - he was probably 1500-1600, so he (probably) won a lot of his placements and got stuck near 2k at the start of the season.

In short: He has a 52% win rate over a far larger amount of games than you do, and he probably did much better on his placement games than you did. The system works properly, over a large number of games. It won't work properly over a small number of games, because of the way the game works.

I myself am +100~ or so in normals, which would stick me, theoretically, at about 2.4k~ Elo. Clearly I'm not 2.4k, since I get matched in normals with 1400-1700s, and the occasional 2k+er.

so you are saying that if you lose most of your placements, it will take a larger number of games to find your true elo?


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